There will be a number of Newcastle fans this morning who are relieved that Newcastle did so well in winning 4-1 against Coventry City last night.

**Chris Hughton** – people were worried

Newcastle manager Chris Hughton has talked today about the worried fans of Newcastle United:* *

“I think it’s understandable people were worried. We have set high standards and we’d fallen below them, particularly at Derby,”

“You’re going to have your highs and lows and the last two away games we haven’t been at our best. But thankfully we were back to those high standards. We’re continuing to churn out results – we’re going to need to do that.”

“We’ll certainly need to take some of our home form into our away form if we want to achieve what we want to achieve this season.”

*With the 4-1 win, Newcastle again took their goal difference (+31) to one better than WBA’s, and we need to get a few good wins during the run-in to further increase that goal difference, because of course it can be worth an extra point if teams are level.*

*Newcastle go all out at home and choose their side accordingly, with two attacking wingers in a 4-4-2 formation.*

*Maybe if we do more of that on the road we’ll get more wins – just a thought.*

*Yes, we were caught out at Derby County, but we surely can beat a lot of the teams during the run-in away from home.*

*Next chance to do that will a week on Saturday at Watford.*

*3 points in that game would be great.*

Comments welcome.

## 16 comments so far

Captain BeefheartFeb 18, 2010 at 11:45 AM

Comment #1WELCOME TO BEEFY’S (c) PROM-o-METER!

OK, stop worrying about Forest and the Baggies, and just whip out this handy NUFC blog sized PREM-o-METER. Painstakingly crafted and soon to be an iPhone app, this devilish device will take the promotion worries away by telling you in advance exactly where the Toon will finish based on recent results.

Your very own fast and bulbous one has looked critically at the last 7 final Fizzy Pop Chumpionship tables, and calculated exactly what our minimum point ratio (points per game played) needs to be GUARANTEED* to end up as:

A) Champions (2.1)

B) Runners Up (1.9)

C) Play Offs (1.7)

In deciding these ratios Beefy has excluded freak winners such as the Baggies in 2008 on a mere 81 points (remember Leicester amassed 90 points in 2006 but only finished runners up to runaway Reading on 106 points) to give realistic estimates.

Now we have the Toon’s performance:

Actual Points Ratio (over season so far): 2.03

Current Points Ratio (over last 8 games): 1.63

Extrapolated Final Points Ratio (based on form over last 8 games being applied to remaining fixtures): 1.89

Predicted Points: 87

Predicted Position: 3rd

So currently, folks, on recent form we will just miss out on guaranteed automatic promotion. The numbers never lie, but it’s still all to play for, and just remember lads it is 3 times better to win than to draw!!

Beefy’s (c) PROM-o-METER will be updated after every game from now until the end of the season with more Booglarising NUFC predictions.

(* NOTE: It is of course possible to scrape an automatic promotion place on 80 or 81 points, but that would depend on the performance of other teams. To be on the safe side we of course need those 90 points in the bag)

PiccoloFeb 18, 2010 at 12:22 PM

Comment #2Beefy – did you also do the same for WBAs/Forests points ratio so far this season and over the last 8 games?? or only Newcastles based on previous CCC tables?

PiccoloFeb 18, 2010 at 12:56 PM

Comment #3re: last comment. only reason i ask is that you can’t ignore WBA/Forest cos they’re in the race too. plus you can take different stats and get different results, e.g. you take the last 5 games we have a better ppg ration than Forest (just as well!). I think we just have to ride it out and keep biting the nails until the end of the season.

One comment on the match last night, anyone else that was there think it was one of the quietest matches all season?! i sit in the gallowgate and it was eerily quiet for large parts of the game, not sure why as there was a decent crowd in.

greekgeordieFeb 18, 2010 at 12:56 PM

Comment #4Good question Piccolo I wondr if we can see the Beefy calculations for WBA and Forrest

Captain BeefheartFeb 18, 2010 at 1:18 PM

Comment #5Hi lads, I’ll work it out over lunchtime.

However, the truth remains in the initial PROM-o-METER which is predicated on the PROVEN points tallies needed. A relative comparison with the Baggies & Forest will only give a retrospective ‘current form’ table which is highly volatile and therefore vulnerable to last minute surges in form that can often takes teams up into an automatic spot over the last half a dozen games.

Nevertheless, I will do it, and post in on the NUFC blog later today.

Cheers,

Beefy

leshFeb 18, 2010 at 1:25 PM

Comment #6Captain Beefheart // Feb 18, 2010 at 11:45 AM

WELCOME TO BEEFY’S (c) PROM-o-METER!

Beefy………. Bollox!

sirjasontoonFeb 18, 2010 at 1:33 PM

Comment #7Yawn-o-Meter zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Captain BeefheartFeb 18, 2010 at 1:44 PM

Comment #8It’s the most accurate guide there is folks – check at the end of the season!! OK, in reply to some enquiries here is Beefy’s revised RELATIVE PROM-o-METER which factors in our two main rivals, the Baggies and Forest.

This – as I have previously described – is highly volatile to surges in form as the points ratio needed will fluctuate due to other teams’ results. I prefer the initial system, as it is predicated on proven points tallies, but here we go….

THE RELATIVE PROM-o-METER – 18/2/2010 (c) Beefy

NUFC:

Actual Points Ratio (over season so far): 2.03

Current Points Ratio (over last 8 games): 1.63

Precited points ratio: (form over last 8 games applied to remaining fixtures):1.89

Predicted Points: (form over last 8 games applied to remaining fixtures): 87

BAGGIES:

Actual Points Ratio: 1.94

Current Points Ratio: 1.88

Predicted point ratio: 1.91

Predicted Points: 88

FOREST

Actual Points Ratio:1.81

Current Points Ratio: 2.0

Predicted point ratio: 1.87

Predicted Points: 86

So this gives us a final table of:

1) WBA 88 points

2) NUFC 87 points

3) Forest 86 points

Will anyone have any fingernails left????

PS LESH, it’s stats not bollox – face the facts!!

greekgeordieFeb 18, 2010 at 2:01 PM

Comment #9Thanks Beefy it looks interesting I wonder what the stats will be after the weekend when we register another win ove Preston and the other two drop some points? Ha Ha Ha!!

Keep the good work going and keep us updated say every Monday, maybe in a few weeks when the Forrest bubble burst we can consider your calculations accademic and we only have to play for the Pride finishing as champions

leshFeb 18, 2010 at 2:05 PM

Comment #10Beefy, your stats aint facts as you’ve applied variables to your calculations.

In this case, they’re predictions and predications aint facts!

leshFeb 18, 2010 at 2:06 PM

Comment #11….. and assumed that the form over the last eight will be replicated as though a straight line graph!

Can you factor blips into your formlae?

EriclesFeb 18, 2010 at 2:09 PM

Comment #12I did a similar calculation a number of years ago using a calculator, a pen, and then a computer spreedsheet. It was quite accurate so probably will be your prom-o-meter. Our inconsistency can still see us scrapping in the play-offs unfortunately. We do need Steve Taylor, Enrique, and even Barton fit.

leshFeb 18, 2010 at 2:33 PM

Comment #13Beefy,

Here is a little something someone sent me that is indisputable mathematical logic. It also made me Laugh Out Loud.

This is a strictly mathematical viewpoint…it goes like this:

What Makes 100%? What does it mean to give MORE than 100%? Ever wonder about those people who say they are giving more than 100%? We have all been to those meetings where someone wants you to give over 100%. How about achieving 103%? What makes up 100% in life?

Here’s a little mathematical formula that might help you answer these questions:

If:

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z

Is represented as:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26.

Then:

H-A -R -D-W-O -R -K

8+1+18+4+23+15+18+11 = 98%

And

K -N -O -W-L -E-D-G-E

11+14+15+23+12+5+4+7+5

= 96%

But ,

A-T -T -I -T -U -D-E

1+20+20+9+20+21+4+5 = 100%

And,

B -U -L -L -S -H-I -T

2+21+12+12+19+8+9+20 = 103%

AND, look how far ass kissing will take you.

A-S -S -K -I -S-S -I -N-G

1+19+19+11+9+19+19+9+14+7

= 118%

So, one can conclude with mathematical certainty, that While Hard work and Knowledge will get you close, and Attitude will get you there, its the Bullshit and Ass kissing that will put you over the top.

Captain BeefheartFeb 18, 2010 at 2:40 PM

Comment #14Hi Lesh, love your post #13, great stuff!!

However, the PROM-o-METER ain’t making predictions just providing statistical extrapolations – a quite different thing. You use them all the time, like to work out what time to set out to get to the match and avoid traffic, as does the government.

The use of the last 8 games is precisely to factor out ‘blips’ (good and bad) while still maintaining a current viewpoint. (6 games is too few and so too volatile to form blips, 10 is too many and so too static to show a change in overall form).

As the PROM-o-METER is updated regularly so any mini blips will ‘wash in and wash out’. I am not loading the dice, just calibrating the machine sensibly.

It is not a straight line graph system, but a mean tangent, as the current form points ratio is is an aggregated average which will fluctuate and be reflected in updates. Obviously if we thump Preston the PROM-o-METER ‘prediction’ will respond to this.

The PROM-o-METER will be updated twice a week (after every game) until final two or three games when it becomes too volatile to use as the error factor will increase exponentially. It is most useful over the first 40 games, it’s predictive accuracy then falls away from games 40-43 as games run out, teams panic, and the points per game return of either 0, 1 or 3 gives it a wobbly – but it remains a useful tool as long as you accept the error margins.

Over the next 10 games I think the final predicted total will be accurate to 3 points one way or the other, anyway I don’t think it will be too far out, hard stats never are!! And if CH took heed of such calculations it might stop complacency setting in as we are only a dropped point off the play-offs at present, as Ericles admits. And we know all about dropped points after last year!

It’s all too easy to brush off wasted draws as an ‘unbeaten run’ when in fact they are simply 2 dropped points – unless they are against a fellow promotion rival. The PROM-o-METER also shows this.

Let’s see how close it gets, eh?

BrisvegasFeb 19, 2010 at 1:37 AM

Comment #15Beefy why not choose a point mid-season and use your calculations to work out what the points tally would be after the current number of games have been played. Compare your calculation to the actual table. That might give you some sort of perspective on how your system works.

leshFeb 19, 2010 at 9:04 AM

Comment #16Most impressed with the stats lesson Beefy.

You are on par with Stardust who is also able to explain even the most complex point at the drop of a hat.

As far as the predictor’s concerned, then yes, we’ll just have to wait and see – after all, it’s only an estimation!

You’re so right though about waxing lyrical about draws being a positive result – in this situation, they represent two points lost and CH needs to take a different view of them.

I wonder…… if draws are viewed as positives, then that view will surely affect players attitudes and lead to complacency?!

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