In reality Newcastle must have very little chance of qualifying this season for the Champions League.
Glenn Roeder – last manager to get newcatsle into Europe in 2006
Newcastle are essentially 6 points outside a Champions League position, because they are 5 points behind Arsenal in 4th place, with a goal difference that is 17 goals worse than that of Arsenal, and a defeat on Monday night will almost definitely eliminate that possibility.
But Newcastle are 8 points above 8th placed Fulham, so if we can get 7th place in the league and if Chelsea, Liverpool or Tottenham win the FA Cup, then Newcastle will qualify for the Europa League.
Newcastle manager Alan Pardew has talked today about Newcastle’s chances of qualifying for European competition for next season:
“It would be over. The Champions League is over if we do not win this one.” “It is not a game which will decide our Europa League fate.” “The next 10 games will do that.”
“This one is about the Champions League – if we win we will be throwing our names in the hat.” “I don’t think we are good enough to do it or big enough.“I don’t think we will be able to hold our nerve to do it.” “However, if we win, it will make it very interesting for Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal.” “We will all go to the next fixture a bit lively.”
“It is about the FA Cup final, if it is two top-six teams in there, seventh place will kick in. That will help us.” “If I am honest, we are the outside chance for the top six because Liverpool’s run-in is magnificent compared to ours.”
“We are looking to protect ourselves from not finishing lower than eight and to have a great season.” “Then in a year we will feel scheduled to get into Europa League, but we have it all to do.”
The Premier League gets three places in the Europa League – 5th place in the league and the two cup winners get those places.
But if any of the top 5 teams have already qualified for Europe through some other means – like winning one of the cups – then an additional place in the league is allocated from 5th place down.
That means that if the two cup winners are in the top six – like Liverpool who won the Carling Cup and either Chelsea or Tottenham if they can win the FA Cup, then two more places in the league table are allocated and Newcastle would qualify for the Europa League if they get into 7th place.
So it was good news for Newcastle last week when both Chelsea and Spurs got through to the quarter finals against lower league opposition.
They joined Liverpool in the last eight and the three clubs are not drawn against each other – which is again good for Newcastle – and we could have all three of them in the semi-finals.
Of course, it will still help if we can win or draw the game at Arsenal on Monday night, and Newcastle must rely on their own form to get that European spot for next season.
And it’s interesting that when Glenn Roeder last got Newcastle into Europe back in 2006, we won six of the seven league games and also finished in 7th place with 58 points.
Howay The Lads!!