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News and Commentary On Newcastle United Football Club By Ed Harrison, A Proud Exiled Geordie And Lifelong Fan

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What Happens If Chelsea Win FA Cup Or Champions League?

9:37 pm, Sunday, April 15th, 2012 by Dr. Ed Harrison · 41 Comments

With Chelsea beating Tottenham 5-1 at Wembley this afternoon, they will play Liverpool in the FA Cup Final on Saturday 5th May.

Mata celebrates scoring Chelsea’s second goal
But there was only one problem – the ball wasn’t over the line – picky picky


And that just so happens to be three days after Newcastle play Chelsea in the league at Stamford Bridge,  on Wednesday, 2nd May.

That’s an advantage to Newcastle,  because  Chelsea will undoubtedly be resting some of their top players for the Final, so it should increase the likelihood of Newcastle getting a good result against Chelsea.

And we’ve had a number of emails today asking  what happens if Chelsea win the FA Cup, or if they  win the Champions League,  and how would that impact Newcastle’s chances of European qualification.

First of all,  our assumption is that we will finish in at least in 6th place in the league, and yes, that isn’t a certainty,  but that’s our assumption. If we finish 7th then all bets are off.

With 15 points to play for, we are 12 points ahead of Everton,  so a win against Stoke City next Saturday, will mean Everton can only equal our points total, and they would have to beat Manchester United next Sunday at Old Trafford to do that.

It’s possible Everton could overtake us, which a few readers have reminded us today – but very unlikely.

Our assumption is Newcastle finish at least 6th top.

So let’s assume Chelsea win the FA Cup – how does that affect Newcastle?

If Chelsea finish below Newcastle in the league,  then that means we must have finished in at least 5th place,  so we would qualify for the Europa League or the Champions League.

If Chelsea finish above us,  then they have also qualified for the Europa League (at least),  because they are in at least 5th place,  so again it would not impact Newcastle.

It gets a bit more complicated if Chelsea actually win the Champions League, which they have never done so before,  and this season’s side is hardly their best.

But let’s say Chelsea win the Champions League.

If they finish 4th top or higher nothing changes, and Newcastle are not affected, because Chelsea have already qualified for a Champions League position for next season.

But if they finish outside the top four, then the UEFA rules, as we understand them, say Chelsea will qualify for the Champions League at the expense of the 4th placed team.

But that 4th placed team is allocated an additional Europa League place and the three previous Europa League qualifiers would not be affected – so if we finish 6th top and Chelsea win the Champions League and finish outside the top four – we are still not impacted.

However, if we are unlucky to finish 4th above Chelsea and Tottenham,  and Chelsea are European Champions we will be in the Europa League,  so that’s one case that will adversely affect Newcastle.

That’s our understanding of the new rules UEFA introduced,  after Liverpool won the Champions League back in 2005, but finished 5th in the Premier League, and therefore did not qualify - and as it happens - Everton were 4th that season.

UEFA was forced by public outcry to allow Liverpool into the the first qualifying round of the Champions League that year, after the English FA ( as usual) held up their hands and said they were unable to do anything about it.

The FA making a tough decision – you’ve got to be kidding me.

But then the following year, UEFA amended the rules, as we have explained above.

That’s our understanding so that Newcastle would not be impacted either way.

We can go into greater detail  if necessary,  but that’s the simple explanation, given our understanding of the updated UEFA qualification rules.

Comments welcome.



Tags: Europa League · European Champions League · European Competition · Newcastle News



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41 responses so far ↓

  • 1 MagpiesFlyHigh // Apr 15, 2012 at 9:41 PM

    Chelsea are not good enough to beat Barca over two legs so this is academic.

    But can they have a good run from now to the end of the season including the game against us – yes

  • 2 JackButler // Apr 15, 2012 at 9:48 PM

    Lets forget about what Chelsea are doing and go out and take fourth place for ourselves, and if Chelsea DO win the Champions League I’ll bare my arse in Buckingham Palace with ‘I love Lee Catermole’ tattoo’d on it

  • 3 Dannyo // Apr 15, 2012 at 9:50 PM

    @JB
    Pic taken, framed, hung up on the wall.
    No way back now :P

  • 4 Spuggy // Apr 15, 2012 at 9:53 PM

    Nice explanation Ed thank you, I think you covered every base there. So the only real uncertainty surround us finishing in at least 6th place.

    Right now it looks a 90% certainy, if we win the next game then it looks 99.99% certainty.

  • 5 ogm // Apr 15, 2012 at 9:55 PM

    Two things

    1. If Chelsea beat Barca I’ll show my arse in Fenwicks window.

    2. The above was far to complicated after too many bottles of lager and some drambuie. I’ll read it again tomorrow

  • 6 woolerbill // Apr 15, 2012 at 9:57 PM

    I think you are all in for a shock, I think ashley will sell to the highest bidders that is why they have lined up replacement. Can you say this is not what will happen

  • 7 Spuggy // Apr 15, 2012 at 10:00 PM

    So we need to wrap this up with a stoke win, and at least a draw away to wigan and Europe is ours.

    We have 3 hard final games against Chelsea, Man City and Everton. Not impossible to lose all three, so the next two games are crucial.

  • 8 Spuggy // Apr 15, 2012 at 10:01 PM

    If the highest bidder is Liverpool with another £35m paycheque they are more than welcome! lol

  • 9 Marty-Toon // Apr 15, 2012 at 10:15 PM

    Can’t see Everton winning all their games either so we should be fine really and have a go at the top 4 now
    Can’t understand why Simmo or Guthrie wouldn’t sign as wer goin to Europe.
    Are they gonna get that elsewhere ?doubt it
    Simmo has had a great season and should be on a decent wage.
    Chelsea are slipping up in the league n injuries piling up and Spurs are off he boil too

  • 10 spitfire_ // Apr 15, 2012 at 10:17 PM

    Nothing will happend if Chelsky win the CL… First six teams in PL will play in Europe… thats for sure. If we finish in top 6 – we will play next season in Europe. The worst scenario is Chelsky to win CL and we to finish 4th – then we will play in Europa League.

  • 11 spitfire_ // Apr 15, 2012 at 10:19 PM

    Actually the worst scenario is Chelsky to win th CL to finish 7th and we to finish 6th… then we will not play in Europe but thats not gonna happend.

  • 12 Graeme // Apr 15, 2012 at 10:22 PM

    To all intents and purposes, we are now in Europe. The only thing to be resolved is which cup.

    Spuds clearly showed today that they are in freefall and there for the taking. Old floppy chops has lost it, the team has lost it. I really cant see them finishing top 5 given there last 10 results.

    I cant see Chelski finishing above us and I think we will get a good draw when we play them at the Bridge in a few weeks. I also think we will beat Shitty at SJP – I’m flying back from Nigeria to see us do it lol.

    I now believe we will make the EUFA Champions League next season, purely on merit, by finishing 4th in this seasons League. Bring it on lol Oh HAPPY DAYS

  • 13 GeordieToon89 // Apr 15, 2012 at 11:09 PM

    If Arsenal get beat tomorrow we’ll finsh 3rd, Watch this space

  • 14 Yorkgeordie // Apr 15, 2012 at 11:23 PM

    I think you have wasted a lot of words here. Chelsea can have NO EFFECT on our europa league qualification if we finish 6th.
    Win, or lose, the FA cup Chelsea will get the Europa place allocated to the FA cup as Liverpool have already qualified.
    If we finish 6th we are IN, it doesn’t matter who does what. At the moment we need 4 points until, or unless, Everton or Liverpool lose points.

  • 15 LewSpi // Apr 15, 2012 at 11:42 PM

    GT89, I was thinking/hoping that.

    NUFC
    Stoke (h)
    Wigan (a)
    Chelsea (a)
    Man City (h)
    Everton (a)

    Arsenal
    Wigan (h)
    Chelsea (h)
    Stoke (a)
    Norwich (h)
    WBA (a)

    Tottenham
    QPR (a)
    Blacburn (h)
    Bolton (a)
    Villa (a)
    Fulham (h)

    Chelsea
    Barcelona (h)
    Arsenal (a)
    Barcelona (a)
    QPR (h)
    Newcastle (h)
    Liverpool (a)
    Blackburn (h)

    Out of the four you could say Spurs have the best run in. BUT, I predict we will finish above Spurs and Chelsea (given how many games Chelsea have left), so I’m only really loooking at Arsenals.

    Arsenal have some tricky games, Stoke away, West Brom away, Chelsea and Norwich, none of them are a walk in the park. I know we hvae our fair share of hard games coming up but is 3rd really out of reach, or am I being too optimistic?

  • 16 Korzic // Apr 15, 2012 at 11:48 PM

    @14. If Liverpool win the FA Cup, the runner up DOES NOT get a Europa spot. The runner up only gets a Europa spot if the winner is a UCL qualifier which in this case, Liverpool is not.

  • 17 Yorkgeordie // Apr 15, 2012 at 11:53 PM

    Spitfire:
    Chelsea can have no effect on our qualifying at all. If they win the CL the will go into the CL as defending champs. An EXTRA PLACE in the europa league comp will go to the 4th place team in the prem.
    As of now Chelsea are already in the Europa League competition as Winners or Runners up in the FA cup because Liverpool have already qualified

  • 18 Yorkgeordie // Apr 15, 2012 at 11:59 PM

    @16
    There are 3 places allocated.
    One for the FA cup winners
    One for the Carling cup winners
    One for the 5th placed team
    So what happens to the first if Chelsea win?

  • 19 beddersmag // Apr 16, 2012 at 12:00 AM

    Not sure if its been mentioned but of the 3 europa cup spots only the highest placed team in the league gets entry to the league stage of the competiton.The other two spots go into a qualifier……

  • 20 Yorkgeordie // Apr 16, 2012 at 12:02 AM

    erm ….I meant if Liverpool win

  • 21 rich_toonfan // Apr 16, 2012 at 12:06 AM

    @woolerbill

    other than carrol (which ashley sold due to the silly money, and lets not remember he turned down a bid of 27mil for him off spurs…a guy wanting to make a quick buck would have sold for 27 mil) we have sold on our terms..

    Enrique and Nolan – sold as they would not sign new contracts and didnt buy into the new system

    Barton – not signing a new contract, causing a fuss, trying to get other players not to buy into the new pay and bonus structure

    Ashley hasn’t been shown to a selling owner……they are they only 4 we have sold in the past year and half and there was good reason behind all.

    Is he rejected bis of 27 and 30 mil for carroll what makes you think he would accept lesser bids for better players.

    And also regarding Ba’s contract….if the release clause was that simple of a straight 7 mil surely somebody (like spurs) would have bid in january to get the guy without competition from other clubs.

    Even if he is available for 7 mil….more than one team could bid that 7 so clubs who want him have no guarantee of getting him even if there bid is accepted, he could choose a different club or not want to leave at all.

    Have to wait and see in the summer but I think there will be a good few come in with no first teamers going out.

  • 22 toonincheek // Apr 16, 2012 at 12:31 AM

    IF there is a release clause and IF it is triggered and IF Ba wants to leave -

    Best twist I have seen would be that if we sold Ba for 6.5 million, the release clause would not be triggered and we would keep all the fee.

  • 23 Korzic // Apr 16, 2012 at 12:54 AM

    @Yorkgeordie

    If the winner of the FA Cup already has a Europa league place, then the Europa spot goes to 6th place in the league ( in this case Chelsea). Which is why if Everton beat Liverpool, then for us to make Europe if we finished 6th we had to hope Chelsea beat Spuds and then went on to win it.

    It’s all academic now but should Liverpool win AND Everton overhaul Chelsea, Chelsea’s Euro fixtures next season would read Swansea (H) Swansea (A)

  • 24 spitfire_ // Apr 16, 2012 at 12:56 AM

    @ Yorkgeordie

    Aye, thats my point. But nevertheless if Chelsea finish 7th and win the CL than the two places for Europa League will be not 5th and 6th but 4th and 5th… and if we finished 6th we will be f***ed up. I’m not say that this will gonna happend bcoz is almost impossible but still there’s have a chance Newcastle to be out from Europe. Even so 99.9% we will play in Europe for next season so Pardew can start with the transfers and finding a way to remove any kind of deadwood.

  • 25 jimmyxavi // Apr 16, 2012 at 1:03 AM

    If we finish in the top 5 and chelsea finish 6th.. chelsea have europe via the fa cup, liverpool via the league cup that would mean there is one more uefa cup spot available.. would that go to the runner up of the league cup or the 7th placed theam?

  • 26 Louis583 // Apr 16, 2012 at 1:16 AM

    http://www.football-italia.net/17735/udinese-look-after-morosinis-sister

  • 27 out of toon // Apr 16, 2012 at 1:42 AM

    the explanation is in the article above.

    Three Europa spots –

    5th in the league
    FA Cup winner
    League Cup Winner (liverfool)

    in the case of the FA Cup, if the winner is already qualified for europe it goes to the runner up – if the runner up is already qualified for europe then it goes to the sixth placed team in the premier league…

    we want at least fifth to ensure.

    chelsea can’t miss out on europe as liverfool have already qualified via the league cup. so if chelsea win or lose the FA cup (obviously against liverfool) they are qualified.

    That means they can finish sixth or seventh or whatever and still qualify for europe. If they finish sixth i believe the spare Europe slot goes to seventh in the league (an so on until an unqualified team is finally chosen – could be Everton – correct me if i’m wrong here, but that is my understanding)

    We really want at least fifth to ensure it. Champs league is the way to go. Whoever says otherwise is living in a pessimistic dreamland

  • 28 Korzic // Apr 16, 2012 at 2:16 AM

    The biggest misconception here is that FA Cup runner up always gets a Europa league spot.

    This is incorrect.

    The FA Cup r/u only gets a Europa league place if the winner has a spot in the Champions League. If the winner of the FA Cup has only qualified for Europa, the runner up gets nothing.

    6th place will be guaranteed a Europa place if and only if Liverpool win the FA Cup. If the unlikely scenario Chelsea losing the FA Cup AND having Everton overtake them, then Chelsea would have no representation in Europe next season.

  • 29 NEWEXPATMAGPIE // Apr 16, 2012 at 6:35 AM

    Jeez!

    Good explanation Ed ! I prefer to stick to our oruginal plan!
    ( my original plan really)!

    Lets just take one game at a time and go for a win in every one and see what happens!

    I,m not really into this “IF” and “BUTS”! thing!

    I could take the piss and say this:

    If we reach Champions League and Krul gets sold to Chelsea in the Summer! And Tiote leaves to go to Manchester!
    Collicini breaks his leg and is out for the season! and is eventually sold to Tottenham!

    We have at this moment a team who could take on anyone! And Yes we could scrape Champions League!
    But we have to make sure if we get to that stage that We still have the team to do anything worth a Bean in that Competition!

    I hope you all can see where i am going with this because for me its a major worry! Three points against Stoke anyone!

  • 30 ShanghaiMag // Apr 16, 2012 at 7:24 AM

    @22, TooninCheek,

    Nice idea, but I imagine Ba would refuse to sign personal terms if we tried to sell him for £6.5 as opposed to £7 million.

  • 31 Yorkgeordie // Apr 16, 2012 at 7:24 AM

    About qualification: Can I refer you to NUFC.com, an excellent, knowledgeable site of long, long standing. An article titled Andy. I have pasted the relevant bit here.

    “”However, with Liverpool already assured of qualification after winning the Carling Cup and now through to an FA Cup Final against a Chelsea side assured of European qualification, a place opens up for the sixth place team.””

  • 32 Geordie Mitch // Apr 16, 2012 at 7:43 AM

    Lads… Just to lay all your fears to rest, I’ve just seen two Magpies fly out from the North pier in a Europe ‘ward’ direction, I’m assured that this means CL qualification.

    I’m also led to deduce that our qualifier will be against Scandinavian opposition, unless they make a sharp right that is.

    You heard it here first.

  • 33 gaz 44 // Apr 16, 2012 at 7:55 AM

    korzic pretty sure they would as Liverpool already in Europe so it goes to runner up.. doesn’t have to be champs league

  • 34 bills-son // Apr 16, 2012 at 8:20 AM

    If Chelseas have a superior goal difference to the Toon and finish 5th, but Spurs are 6th with a superior goal difference to Chelsea but not as good as the Toon, and Liverpool win the cup but finish 7th, and Everton win all of their last 5 games and we draw 2 and lose 3, and ours and Everton’s goad difference is exactly the same but we have scored more goals, and Chelsea and Spurs have exactly the same goad difference and also goals scored – the referee who gave the Chelsea goal against Spurs yesterday will NOT be called upon to decide who gets the last Europa spot.

    A game of ’3 pots in’ will be played at Wembly amongst the fans of the Toon, Chelsea and Spurs to decide that last place.

    As I understand it, these are the rules that UEFA will apply.

  • 35 Wor Shearer // Apr 16, 2012 at 8:36 AM

    I don’t think I’ll ever get bored of this:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOlY_JhJhBM

  • 36 LewSpi // Apr 16, 2012 at 9:20 AM

    Haha wor shearer, gives me shivers that does.

  • 37 Solaidback // Apr 16, 2012 at 9:51 AM

    Spitfire @ 24 – You’re incorrect fella… if Chelski finish 7th & win CL, another place in the Europa League is allocated to the team playing in 4th, so that mean we would have 4 team in the CL & 4 team in the Europa League yeah.. :)

    Korzic @ 28 – You’re also incorrect fella, the runner up of the FA Cup get a place in the Europa League when the winning team is already playing in Europe, so if Cessepool win, Chelski will still get in as runners up, it;’s got nothing to do with the CL, as long as the winner is in a European competition, the runner up will qualify!!

    Also fella’s, don’t forget, the team finishing in 4th doesn’t automatically enter the CL, they have to play a qualifying game first to gain entry to the CL or they too could end up in the Europa League, meaning 3 team in the CL & 5 teams in the Europa League if Chelski win the CL…..

    So saying that, even if we finish 4th & Chelski don’t win the CL, we still could end up in the Europa League if we lose the qualifier… :(

    So come next season, no matter where we finish this season, we could still be in the Europa League, all permutations taken into consideration… lol ;)

  • 38 markmac // Apr 16, 2012 at 10:40 AM

    Jeez Ed its a bit early on a monday morning for all that my heads about explode lol, lets just win as many as we can and at least make sure get into the europa league and then sign several squad players to cope with it over the summer
    HWTL

  • 39 Paps // Apr 16, 2012 at 11:59 AM

    Guys, at the beginning of the season if you’d offered us europe I bet all of u would have bitten their hand off. Don’t ruin the season by hoping the champions league. If we get it – amazing. If we don’t, Europa league still better than what we thought we’d get at the start of the season.
    Role on the last 5 games and let’s enjoy it!!

  • 40 NEWEXPATMAGPIE // Apr 16, 2012 at 2:32 PM

    Agree with you totally Paps!

    One step at a time!

  • 41 theleckworthbird // Apr 16, 2012 at 3:13 PM

    How many experts do we have out there?
    Let’s just wait and see and get behind the team for every one of our remaining games. And let’s get back to being one of the regulars in Euro competitions like we were when sir Bob was in charge.
    Viva St James




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