Newcastle owner should be willing to pay out quite a bit of cash in the January transfer window – in order to ensure we are in the Premier League next season, and when you look at the new numbers for what Premier League teams will receive from the new TV deal – we could lose a staggering amount if we are relegated this season.
Ashley – should I pay out £20M to ensure we could get £92M next season?
We reported in mid-June how the Premier League had cut a deal for just over £3B with Sky Sports and BT, for the domestic rights of televising Premier League games live, for three years starting in 2013, and how that was a cool 70% increase over the previous three year deal.
Last season – on the old agreement – this is how the TV money was shared out between the clubs:
The table is a little hard to read – but Newcastle got £54.24M last year for finishing in 5th place.
It’s a reasonable assumption that next season, that amount will increase by around 70%, and each PL club would then 1.7 times the above amounts – as an assumption.
That means that if Newcastle would get £92.2M if they finished in 5th position, and if we were in mid-table – 10th position – we wouldonly make £79.2M.
And by the way if we are not in Europe next season, we could be challenging for a top six position if we do get reinforcements in during the January transfer window and also in the summer – and we’ll have a fit Yohan Cabaye.
And to make the argument – we wouldn’t get much of that money at all if we are in the second division next season , although we would get some parachute payments if we were relegated.
At the moment Newcastle are near the relegation zone – just two points above third bottom placed Southampton – who took us apart last weekend.
To ensure Newcastle stay in the Premier League for next season, it’s not unreasonable that Mike Ashley could pay out sizable transfer money to Alan Pardew to bring in a number of good players.
For £20M – it seems to us it would be a good investment – if it keeps Newcastle in the Premier League next season – because it we are relegated just think of the tens of millions we will lose out on.
And we know that’s exactly how Mike Ashley – the businessman – thinks.
It seems a decent business case to us.
What do you think?
You can also reach Ed at firstname.lastname@example.org