Newcastle United Becoming A Very Good Takeover Target


News yesterday that the English Premier League has sold TV rights to its games for a record £5.14B ($7.9B), which is 71% above the current deal of £3B, which runs through June of next year.

mike ashley 9876

Mike Ashley – Newcastle owner

And in our review of the deal yesterday we put together a rough estimate of that would mean to future Newcastle revenues.

The revenues for the last financial year through last June 30th already increased by around £34M to around £129M, and made Newcastle the 19th richest club in the world on the Deloitte Money League.

And when the full figures are released later this month we could see profits even north of £40M.

By adding 70% to the money PL clubs receive in the current deal we estimated roughly yesterday in the financial year 2016-2017 Newcastle would get around £136M if we finished in the middle of the table – and that’s around £58M more than we received last year.

Those figures are after correcting an error I had in the article, and it was £10M too much – a deliberate mistake made to keep you on your toes. 😀

Another very quick way to get near that figure is to assume each club gets around 70% more from the new deal,  and since we received around £78M last May it would be around £133M – which is an increase of around £55M.

And it will make the smaller clubs like Crystal Palace, West Brom, Stoke and the like much richer,  which means they can bid for better players – because they will be able to afford to pay higher wages as well as higher transfer fees.

And if Newcastle don’t start using that new revenue to buy top players we could even start losing out to those smaller clubs in the PL,  who will be willing to spend the money to improve their squads.

My son Neil made that point to me this morning – and it’s a good one.

The new increased revenues are only for the  Premier League clubs and not with the other clubs around Europe, so clubs like Newcastle United will be gaining on top clubs like PSG, Real Madrid, Barcelona  and Bayern Munich (in revenue and hopefully profits) to name just a few.

One thing Mike Ashley has done an excellent job of as owner of the club, at is to make Newcastle’s financial figures some of the best in the Premier league – especially with the profits.

And some owners would take our profits this year – we don’t know if they will exceed £40M but they will be very good – and use most of that on buying new players to improve the quality and size of the squad.

We hope Mike Ashley will start doing that.

And we dare say that some Billionaires or consortiums around the world will take a look at Newcastle’s financial figures this month, and do the maths to see what that would will mean in a couple of years time when the new PL TV rights deal becomes active – and Newcastle United would seem to be a very good candidate for a takeover.

It is now given our financial figures of last year.

We’ve always thought that Mike Ashley would sell up  only when a good unsolicited offer comes in, and it wouldn’t be by trying to sell the club, which Mike has tried to do twice with no success.

Maybe a consortium could come in and make the owner an offer he just couldn’t refuse – and pledge to bring the good times back to St. James’ Park.

This new Premier League deal now makes that a lot more likely, there’s little doubt about that.

What do you think?

Comments welcome.

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91 comments so far

  • optimistic prime

    Feb 12, 2015 at 4:31 PM

    Comment #1

    RUBBISH!

    He’s going nowhere

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  • BandB

    Feb 12, 2015 at 4:31 PM

    Comment #2

    I started going along (being taken, really) in 1982.
    In those early years I witnessed some unimaginable dross.
    Like now, the discussion was how long it would be before a freak like Gazza was sold.
    What I did witness, generally, was a club being assembled from triers, even if they had come from the bargain basement. Which is where we, and football generally, was then.
    Last time we were relegated, it dawned on no-one until we were into March that we had a problem. But once we were in, it was just inevitable that WE would be the team that would shrug its shoulders and go down without a fight.
    The situation now is only a few points better in terms of our position. The bald stats and form suggest we are safe.
    We have a cushion.
    But if we lose that, there isn’t much between 14th and 18th. And who would bet this squad who fight any harder than the 2009 one?
    For too many, now as then, it would be a trapdoor out of a club they want to leave anyway.

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  • optimistic prime

    Feb 12, 2015 at 4:34 PM

    Comment #3

    BandB

    From previous, I’m really worried to be honest. I see the warning signs of apathy from the players and the teams bellow us have the fight and desire we lack.
    I said last night I’d drop a few of them to stir it up, get a cpl kids in with fire in their belly now before it’s to late.

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  • toonicle

    Feb 12, 2015 at 4:41 PM

    Comment #4

    We really needed to pick up some points in this last run of games we had, Stoke and Palace should have been 6 points for sure. Really difficult period coming up and our only saving grace might be that the schedule gets easier at the end of the season.

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  • sickandtired

    Feb 12, 2015 at 4:47 PM

    Comment #5

    Ed – short of keeping us for pure profit making purposes (club and SD), which Ashley is capable of, settling the books always did suggest a sale could be in the cards at some point.
    I hope beyond hope that turns out to be the case as I just see no footballing interest in the mans ownership.

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  • BandB

    Feb 12, 2015 at 4:49 PM

    Comment #6

    OP,

    And yet what has happened to the young guns who saved Pardew’s bacon in the autumn?
    Yes, they have been injured. Any more “injured” than Santon?
    Lots predicted that when the “big-hitters” were back they’d slip back down the pecking order.
    Is Abeid even sure anymore that he’s ahead of Raylor?

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  • toon kk

    Feb 12, 2015 at 4:52 PM

    Comment #7

    I honestly think Carver will be th perfect yes man for Mash, so he’ll be here to stay for some time.
    But he is bound to either get fed up with being used once the newness of being a head coach wears off or he’ll suddenly realised he’s fighting a loosing battle with the transfer regime.

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  • BandB

    Feb 12, 2015 at 4:55 PM

    Comment #8

    toon kk,

    When this coaching team are finished here, they are finished in football.
    Carver will get through a hole a squid couldn’t manage to avoid that.

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  • joeinthecheapseats

    Feb 12, 2015 at 4:57 PM

    Comment #9

    The performance yesterday was terrible by anyone’s standards
    Ashley is a parasite and we the fans need to walk away from the pathetic legacy he’s building
    It’s no wonder the better players don’t seem bothered if Ashley can’t bring in players to strengthen the team then there is no competition for places
    One things for sure Carver is not a head coach or manager his tactics have been poor once again

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  • toonbrother

    Feb 12, 2015 at 5:03 PM

    Comment #10

    you have to hand it to Ashley
    He is a great businessman
    All we need is Benitez or McClaren + a new Central defender and we’ll be in great shape

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  • toonbrother

    Feb 12, 2015 at 5:06 PM

    Comment #11

    Coach
    Mclaren

    Defence
    Umtiti and/or Omeruo

    Attack
    Chris Martin, Emenike or Deeney

    Done. Sorted

    0
  • BoyDoneGood

    Feb 12, 2015 at 5:08 PM

    Comment #12

    Should read your own blog, Ed. Your son’s point was already made – plus the point that lower clubs not only CAN, but WILL, spend, forcing up the quality of football:

    “BoyDoneGood // Feb 12, 2015 at 8:55 AM

    There’s another take on the 5bn effect: it will level the playing field for non-CL clubs. Revenue is (a) TV, (b) match day, (c) brand-related. The bigger (a) becomes, the less important (b) and (c) become. If Newcastle/Ashley really did “aspire” to stay nailed to the middle of the table (which I very much doubt), we would still have to spend the extra money on players because the teams in the lower third will certainly spend their windfall on building squads to stay up. The new deal is great news for the quality of football at Newcastle.”

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  • optimistic prime

    Feb 12, 2015 at 5:11 PM

    Comment #13

    BandB

    I think a lot are pinning their hopes on Aaron’s and DeJong.
    It’s crazy that Abeid was rushed back from a broken toe to play and was injured again, yet since he’s been fit has had 25mins. Same goes for Obertron who I’m not a massive fan of but was first choice and doing well before injury but has been on bench for last 3 games and played about 5mins.

    Siisoko has been poor for last 3/4 games and instead of being dropped is moved position. I thought Anita had done well in his last cpl games then dropped to accommodate Gouffran because he’s fluked two goals in last cpl but nowt in the 30 games before that.

    Carver doesn’t have a clue IMO and is going to stick with senior pros to keep them happy giving him more backing for job permanent. The team and kids will and are suffering due to that.

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  • clinath@ed

    Feb 12, 2015 at 5:21 PM

    Comment #14

    Not sure if the increased revenue coming from SKY will improve the quality available to premiership clubs, but it’ll certainly push their price up.

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  • BandB

    Feb 12, 2015 at 5:27 PM

    Comment #15

    Toonbrother,

    Count…one, two three…they are a-comin’ to shoot you down….
    Like you give a toss……..

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  • south coast toon

    Feb 12, 2015 at 5:30 PM

    Comment #16

    you missed out sponsership the extra money that would bring in as well
    if we had new owners surely there would be more money from that as well
    as for game last night didnt see much of it but we didnt get beat and i expected too, so am happy with a piont, also happy cisse scored ive said all along we would be up the creek without him why cant we get the ball to him more thow seasons over really need to get the youngsters blooded more if possible now as it will help us next season
    glad to see no ones being rushed back in to quickly
    who would want carvers job….nobody in janurary did so perhaps we should be greatful hes stepped up to the plate for the mimute

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  • Mister Tuff

    Feb 12, 2015 at 5:30 PM

    Comment #17

    You should assume that other clubs WILL be spending most of their TV dosh. This will no doubt improve those teams.
    However, if Mr Tubbs does not spend to improve we will inevitably lose ground to these other clubs.
    Really quite simple if we do not spend we will lose ground/in relative terms get worse.

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  • tequilamag

    Feb 12, 2015 at 5:33 PM

    Comment #18

    Brilliant insight Mister Tuff better late than never

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  • firebug666

    Feb 12, 2015 at 5:34 PM

    Comment #19
  • toon kk

    Feb 12, 2015 at 5:38 PM

    Comment #20

    I wonder if Mash realises his squad is actually reducing in value, by buying budget chancers which most aren’t good enough, reduces the quality of football as a team making better players look average.

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  • optimistic prime

    Feb 12, 2015 at 5:41 PM

    Comment #21

    Firebug

    Here here on the life time ban!

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  • atkinsonskips

    Feb 12, 2015 at 5:41 PM

    Comment #22

    He needs to start spending some money on decent players. I think Mister Tuff hit the nail on the head.

    I would expect some more hefty price increases for watching the match on TV although you can’t really beat the live experience!

    Ian
    http://www.atkinsonskiphire.co.uk

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  • BandB

    Feb 12, 2015 at 5:48 PM

    Comment #23

    Tuff,

    How denuded the blog would be if it wasn’t for its characters.
    Back in the olden days you had genuine fans who were sure of Ashley’s good intentions and pointing onwards and upwards.
    Ibizatoon, Tsunki, Yo, Ruddy, TADS, bills-son. Terrors to a man. And jesper and Belfast, obviously.
    The loonies were that Low Fell greengrocer and that Buster Bloodvessel guy whose name I can’t remember who was always up for fisticuffs. He had a blinding moment of conversion, but is still just as bonkers.
    Now the poor man has to rely on 9.
    And Jeff.
    And Toonbrother.

    Sarah Palin’s, to a man.

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  • Graeme

    Feb 12, 2015 at 5:48 PM

    Comment #24

    Yes, the club would command a large premium on its earnings if it was being sold, given the guaranteed earning for next 4 years, with the proviso that the club stays in the Premier League.

    Why FCB gambles with our survival, every year, just doesnt make sense, given the huge drop in earnings being relegated would incur. Why he doesnt get the needed players brought in during the summer just beggars belief, given the downside relegation would bring.

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  • Big Pappa Cissé

    Feb 12, 2015 at 5:52 PM

    Comment #25

    Other than the first half against Chelsea Carver is doing himself no favours if he wants the NUFC job full time .

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  • Mister Tuff

    Feb 12, 2015 at 5:52 PM

    Comment #26

    tequilaeagle – good post having a go rather than a post with a bit of NUFC content. Looking for a reaction I suppose – I should raise myself above the obvious jibe.

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  • Lindisfarne

    Feb 12, 2015 at 5:53 PM

    Comment #27

    Presuming at the end of this season that all those that are out of contract (except for Abeid and Aarons) leave, plus those with only one season left, the following would be the 25 man squad:

    1 Tim Krul
    2 Karl Darlow
    3 Paul Dummett
    4 Curtis Good
    5 Jamaal Lascelles
    6 ?ubomír Šatka
    7 Daryl Janmaat
    8 Massadio Haïdara
    9 Kevin Mbabu
    10 Cheick Tioté
    11 Jack Colback
    12 Moussa Sissoko
    13 Vurnon Anita
    14 Mehdi Abeid NEW CONTRACT
    15 Rémy Cabella
    16 Rolando Aarons NEW CONTRACT
    17 Callum Roberts
    18 Papiss Cissé
    19 Siem de Jong
    20 Yoan Gouffran
    21 Ayoze Pérez
    22 Emmanuel Rivière
    23 Adam Armstrong
    24 ?
    25 ?

    END OF CONTRACT:
    Ryan Taylor
    Facundo Ferreyra
    Jonás Gutiérrez
    Sammy Ameobi
    Jak Alnwick
    Adam Campbell
    Remie Streete

    SOLD:
    Davide Santon

    ONE YEAR LEFT ON CONTRACT:
    Fabricio Coloccini
    Steven Taylor
    Mike Williamson
    Rob Elliot
    Gabriel Obertan
    Sylvain Marveaux
    Shane Ferguson
    Gaël Bigirimana
    Haris Vu?ki?

    In a dream world we would employ someone like Rafa Benitez and buy some quality players with a preliminary budget of £ 30M plus the sale of Cisse, to buy an experienced centre forward, central defender and a winger.

    0
  • firebug666

    Feb 12, 2015 at 5:53 PM

    Comment #28

    OP

    I’m with you, ban the lot of them.

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  • Big Pappa Cissé

    Feb 12, 2015 at 5:55 PM

    Comment #29

    Also did anyone watch match of the day last night and hear Phil Neville say Pardew is “known for his attacking substitutions” ? .

    Shows how much these pundits actually watch us week in week out .

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  • jayphoto

    Feb 12, 2015 at 5:55 PM

    Comment #30

    MAsh is going nowhere! Pretty sure that statement saying he’ll be here till 2016 was because thats when the original TV deal ran out and he’d consider selling if the new one was less. No way hes walking out when its 50% more! Aslong as money increases in the PL he’ll be here! Hes a businessman. Only way he’ll sell is for Club Value + his loan + the expected profit for next 5-10 years! I make that he’d want £5-600m

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  • Big Pappa Cissé

    Feb 12, 2015 at 6:01 PM

    Comment #31

    74 Papiss Cisse (10)

    88 Sergio Aguero (16)

    94 Diego Costa (17)

    110 Harry Kane (13)

    147 Charlie Austin (13)

    152 Alexis Sanchez (12)

    190 Saido Berahino (10)

    190 Robin Van Persie (10)

    Cisse should be starting every game, End Of story .

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  • BandB

    Feb 12, 2015 at 6:02 PM

    Comment #32

    Tuff,

    I used to loathe tequila. My least favourite poster by a mile.
    What, with his sarcastic way of applauding me for kicking down doors that were already busted apart.

    0
  • Mister Tuff

    Feb 12, 2015 at 6:02 PM

    Comment #33

    BandB – ah the Lost Posters – pity we couldn’t do a “Where are they now” article.
    Almost forgot “The mad greengrocer from the Heed”.
    I envisage most of them sitting alltogether in a squalid wooden hut, lighting provided by candles, located in a corner of some overgrown allotment.Whinging on about nowt and smoking their exploding cigars.

    0
  • Lindisfarne

    Feb 12, 2015 at 6:02 PM

    Comment #34

    Just realised there are a fair few under 21s in that list which do not need squad numbers.

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  • Lindisfarne

    Feb 12, 2015 at 6:08 PM

    Comment #35

    Five players short of a full 25 man squad:

    1 Tim Krul
    2 Karl Darlow
    3 Paul Dummett
    4 Curtis Good
    5 Jamaal Lascelles
    6 Daryl Janmaat
    7 Massadio Haïdara
    8 Cheick Tioté
    9 Jack Colback
    10 Moussa Sissoko
    11 Vurnon Anita
    12 Mehdi Abeid NEW CONTRACT
    13 Rémy Cabella
    14 Rolando Aarons NEW CONTRACT
    15 Papiss Cissé
    16 Siem de Jong
    17 Yoan Gouffran
    18 Ayoze Pérez
    19 Emmanuel Rivière
    20 ?
    21 ?
    22 ?
    23 ?
    24 ?
    25 ?
    – Adam Armstrong
    – ?ubomír Šatka
    – Kevin Mbabu
    – Callum Roberts

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  • toon kk

    Feb 12, 2015 at 6:14 PM

    Comment #36

    Big pappa
    your right Cisse should be starting every game, let’s hope he doesn’t pick up an injury.
    He would score a hell of a lot more if we were capable of creating changes.
    His value would rocket at a different club.

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  • toonarmydownsouth

    Feb 12, 2015 at 6:20 PM

    Comment #37

    Jayphoto
    Possibly, but it also makes the club a more in demand product with the figures being banded around

    Ash could hold on and slowly reclaim his loan and continue with the ridiculous amount of free advertising
    Or he could recoup the whole lot plus a few quid in one solid hit whilst continuing the free advertising at Rangers

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  • Big Pappa Cissé

    Feb 12, 2015 at 6:25 PM

    Comment #38

    @ Toon kk

    Cisse needs service and proved last night and on many occasions he is a brilliant header of the ball .

    For me Perez needs a rest and can come on as sub to run at tired opposition defenders. I would have us playing with two fast wingers to maximize Cisse’s potential :

    —Obertan——Sissoko——Colback——Aarons—

    —————————Cabella————————–

    —————————-Cisse—————————-

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  • Jeff from Benwell

    Feb 12, 2015 at 6:38 PM

    Comment #39

    toon kk // Feb 12, 2015 at 6:14 PM

    Big pappa
    your right Cisse should be starting every game, let’s hope he doesn’t pick up an injury.

    Ha Ha Ha Ha

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  • toon kk

    Feb 12, 2015 at 6:42 PM

    Comment #40

    Jeff
    ha ha ha ha

    0

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