Just worked through last night how to quickly gauge after a game how many points closer Newcastle are to automatic promotion.
Even though we lost 2-1 at Hillsborough yesterday afternoon we still are 3 points closer to automatic promotion and now need 8 points from our last five games to ensure a top two spot.
That’s because Huddersfield lost and now have 6 games left so they can only win them all – that’s 18 points – and therefore get 92 points in total.
Rafa Benitez – still wants to win every game
Newcastle are still on 84 points with five games to play so we are 8 points short of 92 points and that’s all we need because we have a much better goal difference than the Terriers.
Here’s a way to think about our promotion after the result of each game.
Whatever points Newcastle gain takes us that number of points closer to promotion – if it’s a win it’s 3 points etc – and if we lose it’s 0 points as it was yesterday.
However for an automatic promotion spot it also depends on how the third placed team do and any points they drop – we add those points on too.
So because the Terriers lost yesterday we got 3 points towards our automatic promotion goal – because they can now get 3 points less total points after the defeat.
So that’s the rule of thumb.
It doesn’t work all the time because there are times when the 4th placed team could overtake the 3rd placed team and then have more points and that can mess it up a little.
So if both Newcastle and Huddersfield won yesterday, we would still have gained only 3 points on them towards automatic promotion – we would be no better off this morning than we are now as far as possible promotion goes.
But yes – we know – Newcastle should be winning these games because we want as many points as possible and we have to win the Championship.
We need a win on Friday against Leeds United in the late kickoff game and we need to play well too.
Note that Brighton gained 6 points on their promotion goal with their win at QPR on Friday night and now need only 6 points in their final five games to gain automatic promotion.