Rule Of Thumb – How To Gauge Newcastle’s Promotion Progress


Just worked through last night how to quickly gauge after a game how many points closer Newcastle are to automatic promotion.

Even though we lost 2-1 at Hillsborough yesterday afternoon we still are 3 points closer to automatic promotion and now need 8 points from our last five games to ensure a top two spot.

That’s because Huddersfield lost and now have 6 games left so they can only win them all – that’s 18 points – and therefore get 92 points in total.

Rafa Benitez – still wants to win every game

Newcastle are still on 84 points with five games to play so we are 8 points short of 92 points and that’s all we need because we have a much better goal difference than the Terriers.

Here’s a way to think about our promotion after the result of each game.

Whatever points Newcastle gain takes us that number of points closer to promotion – if it’s a win it’s 3 points etc – and if we lose it’s 0 points as it was yesterday.

However for an automatic promotion spot it also depends on how the third placed team do and any points they drop – we add those points on too.

So because the Terriers lost yesterday we got 3 points towards our automatic  promotion goal – because they can now get 3 points less total points after the defeat.

So that’s the rule of thumb.

It doesn’t work all the time because there are times when the 4th placed team could overtake the 3rd placed team and then  have more points and that can mess it up a little.

So if both Newcastle and Huddersfield won yesterday, we would still have gained only 3 points on them towards automatic promotion – we would be no better off this morning than we are now  as far as possible promotion goes.

But yes – we know – Newcastle should be winning these games because we want as many points as possible and we have to win the Championship.

We need a win on Friday against Leeds United in the late kickoff game and we need to play well too.

Note that Brighton gained 6 points on their promotion goal with their win at QPR on Friday night and now need only 6 points in their final five games to gain automatic promotion.

PosTeamGamesGDPoints
1Newcastle464594
2Brighton463493
3Reading46485
4Sheffield Wednesday461581
5Huddersfield46-281
6Fulham462880

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32 comments so far

  • ShirebrookToon

    Apr 9, 2017 at 12:33 PM

    Comment #1

    5 games left. We’re nearly there boys and girls. Let’s keep the faith and back the boys right til the final whistle on May 7th.

    HOWAY THE LADS!!

    WE ARE UNITED!!

    let’s not fall apart now

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  • Ron Knee

    Apr 9, 2017 at 12:41 PM

    Comment #2

    Shirebrook

    Well said.

    If there’s a hard way to do something NUFC will unfailingly find it!

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  • BlacknWhiteBarmy

    Apr 9, 2017 at 12:47 PM

    Comment #3

    Are we going to win promotion or are other teams gonna fold?
    Playing Murphy and Mitrovic againsat Leeds would be my preference – let other teams worry about us – not the other way round – also at home would get the fans going!
    But no doubt we will get Perspex in the CF position (useful target for the wingers /widemen) with Diame in the no 10 role behind.
    Lets get at them and go for a WIN

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  • Bobbybee

    Apr 9, 2017 at 12:53 PM

    Comment #4

    Dunno about anybody else but I intend to kick back and remind myself how lucky I am by watching my two least favoured teams. One however is much less favoured. I will watch with pleasure Sunlun’s epic fail as they get humiliated once again. Their plummet to oblivion gives me great comfort when I hear how hard it is supporting a winning team like Newcastle. 🙂 Count your blessings. It could’ve been worse – you could’ve been born a mackem. On that note, go and fix me a cup of tea, a couple off other little things I need to do and then get that lovely glow you get when Sunlun bomb. Unless… No, don’t be silly. Not happening is it? How empty will it be by, fifty minutes? 3-0 down? What a great way to spend early afternoon on a Sunday.

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  • Bobbybee

    Apr 9, 2017 at 12:57 PM

    Comment #5

    Hope I ain’t jinxed it now. 🙂

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  • JamesToon

    Apr 9, 2017 at 1:17 PM

    Comment #6

    Fans need to remember, this is only the very beginning of the rebuilding process

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  • BlacknWhiteBarmy

    Apr 9, 2017 at 1:18 PM

    Comment #7

    James – if you go up – they don’t take it easy on you cos your new!!!!

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  • SPRINGY

    Apr 9, 2017 at 1:24 PM

    Comment #8

    Disappointed with the display yesterday,always ganna be tough but really lacked Something yesterday…..more disappointing is the teams lack of taking advantage of other teams cock ups….all season we have failed to take advantage,put in a performance…when there’s the slightest bit of pressure on us we are no good it seems and that is definitely the case at home…..we are second and lookin good for promotion but with 3 home games to play im nervous about how we will play when it comes to thr crunch….would like to win the league especially if sunderland and boro come down tbh tho! Lol

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  • toonincheek

    Apr 9, 2017 at 1:41 PM

    Comment #9

    Bobbybee –

    I only want us to be above/better than the Mackems.

    But derby days are special days, part of the rich
    tapestry of life.
    For that reason(only) I would prefer them to be
    with us in the PL, with us (much) higher.

    Same with ‘Boro, but to nowhere near the same extent.

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  • posada

    Apr 9, 2017 at 1:51 PM

    Comment #10

    Derby days are special blah blah blah.
    Anybody who will miss that lot is just soft.

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  • RUNAWAY777

    Apr 9, 2017 at 1:58 PM

    Comment #11

    Answer this lads we have the best squad but we are relying on teams getting beat for f..k sake we should be clear and promoted by now or am i wrong again.

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  • LewSpi v2.0

    Apr 9, 2017 at 1:58 PM

    Comment #12

    I can’t understand some of the fans reactions to us getting beat and our ‘recent performances’.

    “We should be walking the league with this squad” – may I remind you this is largely the same squad which got relegated last season.

    “We have the best manager in the league” – correct, the best manager who had just 4 months to assess and overhaul the relegated squad before this season began. Our rivals have been preparing for this promotion push for years and years, Brighton have come close 3 years in a row, and they have Chrissy Hughton at the helm, a man who certainly knows his way around this end of the championship season.

    Please be patient, this season has one goal – promotion. That’s it.

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  • Tsunki

    Apr 9, 2017 at 1:59 PM

    Comment #13

    Just read a comment that Lascelles is “useless in the air” – a fine addition to the scapegoating of a capable centre back and captain, part of one of the meanest defences in the league. The vaccillating and fickle mob that burrow out if the ground after a rare defeat know fee bounds in their quest for dissatisfaction in the face of success. Pathetic show, especially on a fans forum.

    It’s astounding that many still equate things like goals conceded to simpleton economics like “poor goalkeeper” or “poor defending” when the real culprits need to be sought elsewhere, namely the lack of midfield organisation and cohesion that puts pressure on the rearguard. That we have such a goal difference isn’t just down to Gayle, Ritchie et al. It has a lot to say about the resolve of a back line that is being hammered by virtue of an open door in midfield week after week.

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  • welshgeordie9

    Apr 9, 2017 at 2:02 PM

    Comment #14

    I just hope Rafa dosent use boring tactics next season.

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  • Tsunki

    Apr 9, 2017 at 2:02 PM

    Comment #15

    Thankfully some faith in the blog is restored when the sensible posters pick themselves up from their reeling under the weight of derision and complaints by the knee-jerk rabble, to give some sensible riposts.

    0
  • LewSpi v2.0

    Apr 9, 2017 at 2:03 PM

    Comment #16

    “The vaccillating and fickle mob that burrow out of the ground after a rare defeat know few bounds in their quest for dissatisfaction in the face of success.”

    Tsunki wins sentence of the day. Congratulations.

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  • welshgeordie9

    Apr 9, 2017 at 2:04 PM

    Comment #17

    Before Gayle got injured, he didn’t have one shot on goal, why was that.

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  • Essex Geordie Bill

    Apr 9, 2017 at 2:08 PM

    Comment #18

    Looking at that table the only team in the top six who can’t catch us is SW.

    If and that’s a very big IF we were to slip up badly in the next five teams and then anyone from Leeds upwards went on a hot streak then we may be in panic mode.

    Friday’s game is a Bigly (to quote some politician)

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  • welshgeordie9

    Apr 9, 2017 at 2:11 PM

    Comment #19

    Worryingly it’s not the first time yesterday the players put in a shite performance, it’s the championship, ffs, no you can’t batter every team 5-0 but then on the other side how many teams have we battered, matches we have won we scraped through some of the them, yesterday was terrible to watch.

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  • WWSBRD

    Apr 9, 2017 at 2:25 PM

    Comment #20

    Leeds have lost 3 of their last 6 away games according to statto and only won 1, I fancy them to pap themselves at ours tbh and we will have a fairly comfortable win, just hoping Colback and Hayden are back ready to go

    0
  • WWSBRD

    Apr 9, 2017 at 2:39 PM

    Comment #21

    That Pickford lad is a bit overrated isnt he, another keeper thatll get a big move and flounder I predict

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  • nut meg

    Apr 9, 2017 at 2:39 PM

    Comment #22

    Makems 2-0 down & Larsson sent off.

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  • Hail Wor Ashley

    Apr 9, 2017 at 2:49 PM

    Comment #23

    Nah Tsunki

    I know you like to be a contrarian as if you’re providing some insight that other miss, but in this case it was purely shite defending by both CBs. Simple.

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  • Tsunki

    Apr 9, 2017 at 2:51 PM

    Comment #24

    Ha ha thanks Lewspi i never knew it would have the success it did when i first created it, it just became this huge monster that grew and grew…I’d like to thank my writing crew for their imagination, my press crew for the exposure it got, without their energy it would never have got this far, of course my family who……..

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  • Tsunki

    Apr 9, 2017 at 2:52 PM

    Comment #25

    Hail. I rest my case.

    0
  • Tsunki

    Apr 9, 2017 at 2:52 PM

    Comment #26

    Wow. Is cattermole still on as well? Extraordinary.

    0
  • Hail Wor Ashley

    Apr 9, 2017 at 2:53 PM

    Comment #27

    WWSBRD

    Why wouldn’t Rashford be open to a loan move here in WC year? It’s obvious Mourinho isn’t much of a fan and whether Zlatan stays or goes, he’ll be bringing in 1 or 2 forwards hat’ll be ahead of Rashford.

    So season on the bench or starting at Newcastle?

    Unlikely, but not beyond the realms of possibility.

    Though many of us are mentioning likes of Townsend, Maguire, Cairney, Defoe, I think Rafa will cast his net a lot wider, for better or worse.

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  • Hail Wor Ashley

    Apr 9, 2017 at 2:56 PM

    Comment #28

    Tsunki

    As do I. When a long throw is headed in after a flimsy challenge by our CB, when another is headed in off a free-kick and the other of our CBs was marking the scorer and couldn’t compete, it’s really quite clear.

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  • toonincheek

    Apr 9, 2017 at 2:56 PM

    Comment #29

    Big fan of Mbemba, so naturally looking to see
    how much to blame he was for incidents, plus
    looking at some Ref. decisions from extended
    highlights.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLDqFL92MOI

    I reckon Hooper (?) was JUST offside when he received/played the ball to Fletcher for the (missed) open goal chance. So close – can’t really blame the officials.

    When Mbemba lost possession, trying to run the ball over the line, Hooper barged him in the back with his chest. OK so NOT a push with his hands but I reckon that should have been a foul.

    First Sheff Wed goal – just how the ball dropped for their header, even though 4x Newcastle players also jumped.

    Sheff Wed 2nd goal – looks like Diame was fouled in the build-up – but marginal.
    Fletcher’s header was good – but lucky to get it spot on.
    Can’t really defend those. (btw I hate Fletcher!!)
    If anyone was to blame – it was Lascelles.

    Mitro goal attempt/assist was outstanding.

    We shaded possession (not that that is worth much) and we had more shots/and on target that Sheff Wed – but on goals scored – we lost.
    But not a bad defeat and not such a bad performance.

    ALL teams look on us as a prize scalp and raise their game when they play us.

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  • WWSBRD

    Apr 9, 2017 at 3:02 PM

    Comment #30

    Hail
    How is Mourinho not much of a fan of Rashford? Hes played a lot for a young player this year and likely more so next year, hes younger than Armstrong and playing in a top quality PL side

    As for the WC Rashford will be going if he is fit doesnt need to move away from a club he loves to do it, if he was to go on loan (which he wont) he’d be off to a club who guarantee he starts every game (which Rafa wont) and likely to better club than a recently promoted one

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  • Hail Wor Ashley

    Apr 9, 2017 at 3:17 PM

    Comment #31

    WWSBRD

    Well less than 1700mins in a packed schedule doesn’t really indicate great faith. He’s been fit all season and been on the pitch about 40% of the time so far. Suppose it’ll become clearer in the summer where he fits in as Mourinho’s squad takes shape.

    Wouldn’t be so sure about him going to the WC if he isn’t playing regularly. Make the initial squad as long as he is healthy, sure, but the final cut is a different story. Anyway, maybe he doesn’t just want to go to the WC, maybe he has ambitions to start and to do that he’ll have to be playing regularly.

    Why wouldn’t Rafa start him regularly? Not like he rotates all the time. Players like Ritchie, Shelvey and even Dummett have been guaranteed starters this season when fit.

    All I’m saying is, if moves lead there to being a chance, we should be in there. Already said it’s unlikely, but not beyond the realms of possibility.

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  • Hail Wor Ashley

    Apr 9, 2017 at 3:19 PM

    Comment #32

    Rashford scores 😆

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