Can A Takeover Deal Be Agreed At This Price – With Nobody Losing Face?


When any deal is at an impasse one of the things that are preventing the deal going forward could be that neither side wants to lose face by backing down.

That’s especially true now when you have two experienced negotiators in Amanda Staveley and Mike Ashley unable to agree on a deal for Newcastle.

The latest we have heard in the press is that Amanda will offer £250M for the club in one single upfront payment.

What Mike Ashley wants is not clear, but in the Mail, there was a report a day or two ago that said he would be willing to accept £300M at a minimum.

Ashley has invested £262M in the club, and at the very least he will want his money back.

In cases like this one solution is to just split the difference – do a binary chop.

Mike Ashley and Amanda Staveley – currently deadlocked

In other words, if Ashley reduces the lowest bid he will accept to £275M, and Amanda Staveley raises the amount she will offer by £25M  a deal could possibly be struck at around £275M.

That would allow Ashley to recuperate his total investment in Newcastle and could possibly enable the deal to go through quickly too.

There is still the problem of possible relegation, but that possibility recedes if Rafa can get good players in during January.

Staveley is reported to have some player investment in January in her latest offer, and that meets a Mike Ashley requirement that he wants the new owner(s) to invest in the squad.

Something we should say that he rarely did as the Newcastle owner.

If the deal could go through quickly, it’s possible Rafa could get significant money to spend in January – certainly more than he is currently expecting.

But it’s always tricky to know exactly what the sticking points are in the deal when you don’t know the details of what’s really going on.

But a price of £275M could possibly be agreed between the two sides, and that would help put the fans out of their misery.

Mike Ashley cannot hold out for a figure that is unrealistic.

Amanda could move in quickly to take over the club and help Rafa fortify the squad in January as her first action as the new Newcastle owner.

But first things first we need 3 points on Saturday.

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75 comments so far

  • JackButler

    Dec 7, 2017 at 10:32 AM

    Comment #1

    Even with no sale in place Ashley knows he has to invest in January as if he doesn’t he will stand to lose up to 50% of the clubs value with yet another relegation.

    For him to drop is asking price again, it depends on how desperate he is to get out quickly

    5
  • hibbit

    Dec 7, 2017 at 10:44 AM

    Comment #2

    PCP are the only buyers in town so it must be in everyone’s best interest to reach a compromise and get this deal done

    2
  • Spoof

    Dec 7, 2017 at 10:44 AM

    Comment #3

    hibbit

    If there are billionaire backers then why are they quibbling over what appears to be £50m or so, to me and you that is a lot of cash but in PL terms it’s one good player, and this tax thing is something which they will probably have knowledge of anyway, the likely fines would probably be known to them now, or an idea would be known to them, and the fear of relegation could be significantly eased in the January window.

    I admire your optimism I really do, sadly I fear that it is misplaced as a deal now looks unlikely.

    1
  • hibbit

    Dec 7, 2017 at 10:47 AM

    Comment #4

    Spoof
    that’s how they’re billionaires

    13
  • albert albert

    Dec 7, 2017 at 10:51 AM

    Comment #5

    Shay Given says we should go for Alexi Sancez if the takeover goes though , he must be on the Guinness !
    More chance of signing Lawrie Sanchez

    4
  • Christopher Asprilla

    Dec 7, 2017 at 10:53 AM

    Comment #6

    I think the compromise here if Staveley decides to bid again is 300M in instalments with the relegation clause as a final bid. Staveley won’t lose face and neither will Ashley. The simple fact is he won’t take anything that doesn’t start with a 3 and Staveley won’t be bullied into not demanding the relegation clause. Then it comes down to the simple thing. Would Ashley risk the clause? Their on the way to another relegation with worse resources than if Staveley took over and more importantly the fan base would subside into the realisation that Ashley is going nowhere. Along with the fact that another 30-50 million would come out of Mike’s pocket to pay for it . He would have to accept the relegation clause. He is a gambler!

    3
  • JackButler

    Dec 7, 2017 at 10:53 AM

    Comment #7

    Spoof, why do you think the deal is unlikely? The only information we have comes from people who haven’t got a clue what’s happening. Everyone claims to have inside information fact is no one knows what the hell is happening, it’s all guess work, speculation and no doubt outright lies. Time will tell but I think it will happen and happen pretty soon

    3
  • Lee Charnley Bunga Party

    Dec 7, 2017 at 10:58 AM

    Comment #8

    It wouldn’t surprise me if the main reason causing the delays in the takeover will be all the goodness that Ashley has taken from the club such as naming rights , land around the stadium and match day revenue that will be in all his little companies that he has them in !

    Rangers exposed him badly for the stuff that he was trying to do to them unfortunately we never had anyone in the know who would have stopped him or can make out what has happened !

    Proper companies who investigate this will probably find big holes in revenue that would likely allow us to compete with other teams!!

    1
  • cyprus

    Dec 7, 2017 at 10:59 AM

    Comment #9

    Quiz: how many articles and posts can be written on speculation?

    Onto the next game. Can we win it and lift everyone?

    1
  • Lee Charnley Bunga Party

    Dec 7, 2017 at 11:03 AM

    Comment #10

    @Cyprus

    We need a win Leicester are one of the teams I would rather not play when we really need a win as they have such pace and work rate

    Mbemba and Lejuene were all over the place at balls over the top last week Vardy will be a nightmare for them on Saturday

    0
  • OneAlanShearer

    Dec 7, 2017 at 11:14 AM

    Comment #11

    Hibbit- exactly. Those who have money know how to keep it. Tightest person I know is also the richest.

    For me this is all about brinkmanship. They’ll reach a deal it’s just when and to be honest I doubt it’ll be anywhere near 380 million which was a ridiculous price. I think 320 is more than a bit fair. 280 is probably right.

    0
  • Spoof

    Dec 7, 2017 at 11:25 AM

    Comment #12

    JackButler

    I know nowt, like all of us, although some do try to say otherwise, but my gut feeling is that it is either Staveley who Ashley deals with or there is no deal, it doesn’t appear as if there is interest from elsewhere, so looking at Staveley, again no knowledge just gut feeling but I get the feeling that she is as stubborn as Ashley, both of them seem to me to have their valuation and neither seem prepared to budge, which is why I am fearful of a deal from happening, I have been saying this since the first offer was made, they appear to be so far apart that a compromise to me seems unlikely, however I hope I’m wrong.

    1
  • Sav

    Dec 7, 2017 at 11:26 AM

    Comment #13

    Until we know Stavely/PCP’s intentions are any more ambitious than Mashley’s, I can’t get too excited either way. Except the dragging out is, well, dragging out. Either owner will need to fund some players soon. Ideally, Stavely buys cheap so at least potentially, she has more cash to sanction for Rafa to buy players. But as a topic of interest, of itself, having an ex-model owner does not equate to sexy football.

    0
  • Tinman

    Dec 7, 2017 at 11:27 AM

    Comment #14

    Hibbit @4

    Stealing my line from a few days ago eh 😉

    0
  • bettyswallocks

    Dec 7, 2017 at 11:35 AM

    Comment #15

    http://madmikesamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/ChristieCone.jpg

    Mad mike’s greed will have no doubt been factored into the negotiations by Amanda . Someone commented earlier that it was a good sign that Ashley was still at the table. He spends most of his day and evening at the f…ing table .

    5
  • Spoof

    Dec 7, 2017 at 11:36 AM

    Comment #16

    Cyprus

    In all honesty mate, the speculation is more entertaining than the football at present.

    2
  • JackButler

    Dec 7, 2017 at 11:39 AM

    Comment #17

    Spoof, I think it’s become a game of who blinks first and it depends on whether Staveley is leading the bid for her own consortium or for a third party, but for a possible deal to be this far down the line when bids have been made its only a matter of time before a deal is struck. We are by far the best if not the only club available at this level where players aside, we have every single thing in place from the stadium, manager to the fan base. Have faith my friend the dark days will end soon enough ?

    4
  • Spoof

    Dec 7, 2017 at 11:54 AM

    Comment #18

    JB

    The difference between your gut feeling and my gut feeling is that you believe we are some why down the line, for me we are still on the starting blocks, when the due diligence was getting done that for me was the first step, however to me that was also the last step because the offer, whichever one you believe was turned down, nothing has happened since so as far as I’m concerned we are still where we were some 3 weeks ago.

    0
  • Spoof

    Dec 7, 2017 at 11:59 AM

    Comment #19

    JB

    Your right about us being the only current option for Staveley which gives Ashley the upper hand, will Staveley blink and give him what he wants, so far it appears not, and I doubt Ashley will cave in, we’ve all seen how he conducts player transfers, he has his valuation, whether that be buying or selling and he sticks to his valuation.

    I am fearful that he will have the same approach to selling the club.

    0
  • Essex Geordie Bill

    Dec 7, 2017 at 12:04 PM

    Comment #20

    It’s really simple, 7 games 7 wins, panic over.

    Selling or no selling becomes irrelevant.

    2
  • hibbit

    Dec 7, 2017 at 12:13 PM

    Comment #21

    Tinman
    apologies if i have, didn’t mean to steal your thunder

    1
  • hibbit

    Dec 7, 2017 at 12:20 PM

    Comment #22

    Sav

    don’t think PCP are the buyers just agents working for a 3rd party.
    the real mystery is who they are and that’s the secret that’s being very well protected

    0
  • ArtyH

    Dec 7, 2017 at 12:23 PM

    Comment #23

    Hi guy’s,just my two pennarth. This far along how many different arguments can you make either way for the deal as they both know by now the whole gambit of each others playlist. Is it just a case of relentless gainsaying of lower the price or raise the price, if so its Monty Python like and a road to no where. As has been said we are in the dark as fans, this is a top table issue and we may never know. What has become apparent is Staveley is the only game in town, regardless what you may think of that and her I think it is the best option, yes its sink or swim but given the choice of what we know about how Mash runs the club and an alternative I would gladly take the alternative, and get rid of the tenure of the barrow boy.

    2
  • toonincheek

    Dec 7, 2017 at 12:23 PM

    Comment #24

    Spoof

    It seems to me that Ashley wants to sell
    MORE than Staveley wants to buy.
    But – very hard to tell, especially not knowing
    who the real buyer would be.

    0
  • CACHG

    Dec 7, 2017 at 12:34 PM

    Comment #25

    If this deal does go through fairly quickly, is there not another lengthy process for the FA/ Premier league to do due diligence on this possibly secret buyer to see that they fit in with FA criteria? CAC.

    1
  • Optimistic Panda

    Dec 7, 2017 at 12:36 PM

    Comment #26

    Has Ashley or Amanda made a official statement saying a bid was made/rejected?

    Has a official statement been made saying they’re arguing over 50m?

    Is there a official statement saying what the bid is/was?

    Most of the stuff people are making statements on here on the radio etc about the takeover is the figment of the medias imagination!!

    A few decent folk on here have mentioned stuff way befit got distorted by the media, Chinese whispers..

    The only official thing I’ve seen is When Morts company said they were in talks with Ashleys lawyers!! Then it was pulled almost immediately, which looks like they were told to keep quiet.

    Everything else in the media is made up click bait!!

    0
  • Ron Knee

    Dec 7, 2017 at 12:36 PM

    Comment #27

    hibbit

    If PCP are the agents not the buyers, then presumably Amanda Staveley will be paid by results so she should be highly motivated to broker a deal.

    1
  • Bambams

    Dec 7, 2017 at 12:44 PM

    Comment #28

    Hibbit

    I was told this morning who her backer is supposed to be. Whether it’s true or not I can’t say. I will be speaking to the source again later or tomorrow. But he was adamant this is accurate. But I am a firm believer ‘just because you hear something doesn’t mean it is right’

    If it is this backer I can understand the reason for anonymity. I have text Sparky to see if he has heard the same but obviously Disney Parks come before Blogs.

    I know it’s not Stavely money and she may be trying to get brownie points for brokering a good deal.

    2
  • hibbit

    Dec 7, 2017 at 12:45 PM

    Comment #29

    Optimistic Panda don’t forget Ashley’s lawyer Henderson statement

    Henderson said: “Since Monday, a number of additional parties have come forward which we believe to be credible. “We are also continuing to engage with a number of parties with whom we had entered into negotiations prior to Monday’s announcement.” One of those is reportedly Staveley, who has reportedly signed an NDA and entered into due diligence to look into the finances of the club, prior to any proposed offer for the club. Mike Ashley, who put United up for sale on Monday, is understood to want between £300-400m,

    0
  • hibbit

    Dec 7, 2017 at 12:48 PM

    Comment #30

    Ron Knee
    i would think so, a hefty commission would be in order i would think

    1
  • hibbit

    Dec 7, 2017 at 12:49 PM

    Comment #31

    Bambams
    no names but is it big money ??????????????????

    1
  • cyprus

    Dec 7, 2017 at 12:50 PM

    Comment #32

    Spoof I hear you. Ok, I prefer that other picture of Amanda’s if this is to go on for a few more months.

    Lee, good point. Leicester always give us a hard game and a couple good beatings lately. Hope we can somehow win. Which is also speculation 🙂

    3
  • Optimistic Panda

    Dec 7, 2017 at 12:51 PM

    Comment #33

    Hibbit

    I believe nowt that comes from Ashley or his minions.

    1
  • Bambams

    Dec 7, 2017 at 12:55 PM

    Comment #34

    Hibbit

    Can you see my smile…..

    1
  • Essex Geordie Bill

    Dec 7, 2017 at 1:08 PM

    Comment #35

    Bambams is that a hint that Disney are the bidders, wow St James giant theme park!!!

    1
  • jesperfuglsang - capt'n awesome of the lemon crew

    Dec 7, 2017 at 1:09 PM

    Comment #36

    Why all this secrecy? It’s not going to make a difference what names are being discussed on a Newcastle blog!

    …why even mention you know stuff if you cannot share?

    5
  • Frank pingles come sock

    Dec 7, 2017 at 1:13 PM

    Comment #37

    Bambams- if it is this backer and they want anonymity, can you see them being the type to drop out of negotiating or upping their bid ??

    0
  • Jib

    Dec 7, 2017 at 1:17 PM

    Comment #38

    dubai international capital (dic) group

    1
  • Wayayman

    Dec 7, 2017 at 1:18 PM

    Comment #39

    For Bambams (and anyone else who missed this earlier from Sparky…)

    sparky55
    Dec 7, 2017 at 1:13 AM
    Comment #149
    I’m on holiday at the minute in Florida and been watching the breaking news with great amusement…journo’s just making stuff up as they go along and Ed recycling it even though none of it makes any sense.

    I got a nudge today that Mikey boy has taken up one the funding options he had lined up…as far as he’s concerned the 300 million is in the bag.

    Make of that what you will but in my book he thinks he’s home and dry

    0
  • SecretSausage

    Dec 7, 2017 at 1:18 PM

    Comment #40

    Well I’ve also had what friends say is very reliable info and no name was given but they say the new owner is beyond wealthy and will give unlimited funds. Obviously there’s financial fair play. But you get the idea.
    These people don’t bid themselves. The give instructions to the likes of Staveley to go and do a deal. And her firm will have a big responsibility to ensure all is well. Her companies reputation depends on it.
    Its so exciting.

    2

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