It’s Highly Unlikely Newcastle Will Be Sold Before May – Here’s What Could Happen


It’s now apparent that Mike Ashley did not like the way the potential takeover was handled by Amanda Staveley and her PCP Capital Partners Group.

And it seemed the news from two of Richard Desmond’s papers yesterday – the Express and the Star – that a new bid over £300M had been offered for Newcastle – was too much for the Newcastle owner.

Staveley’s group have said they put in one offer in November, but that had all the clauses of relegation and the like in it – which Ashley did not consider a proper bid and grossly under-valued the club.

Mergers and acquisitions are supposed to be conducted in silence because of the non-disclosure agreements both sides must sign.

Ashley will not accept complicated bids which have complicated clauses in them.

Rafa Benitez – seems like a long time ago

And Ashley will only entertain offers for Newcastle more than £300M.

So that being the case there will likely be no offers for Newcastle from any group until Newcastle are safe in the Premier League.

There may be an offer that states it is only valid if Newcastle are still a Premier League side by May, so the deal is hardly likely to close before May.

That’s unless Newcastle go on a good winning run and are able to get the six wins we need to be safe.

But we only have 9 league games to play through the end of March.

Ashley will insist on groups agreeing to privacy and not leak information to the media – and there’s nothing wrong with the owner wanting that.

If we maintain our Premier League status hopefully Ashley will sell and Rafa will agree to stay at the club under the new owners.

If Ashley doesn’t sell, we think Rafa will leave the club this summer, even though Newcastle remain a PL club.

If we are relegated, it wouldn’t be a big surprise if Staveley still tries to buy Newcastle for say £150M, but she will only do that if Rafa Benitez agrees to stay at Newcastle.

That will be very hard for Rafa to do, after what he’s been through at Newcastle and he’s already spent one year down below with the Magpies.

If Newcastle are relegated, and Ashley remains the owner, then Rafa will leave the club in the summer.

What do you think about this?

Comments welcome.


26 comments so far

  • Pitmatic

    Jan 17, 2018 at 2:31 PM

    Comment #1

    When Ashley took over Newcastle the first thing anyone knew about it was the day it happened. I just don’t see why his selling up should be any different. This whole charade stinks of artifice, from Staveley’s media-briefed appearance at SJP, to the ridiculous posturing outside the curry house. Who knows what the hell’s going on and what games are being played?

    If Rafa walks, so be it. People need to calm down a bit. The club will still exist after he’s gone, and might even prosper. Maybe we just have to embrace Ashley’s ownership in all its mad, petty, surreal pointlessness. Care less, enjoy more.

    10
  • santon3

    Jan 17, 2018 at 2:33 PM

    Comment #2

    I don’t think we will be relegated, there are teams worse than us. We will finish above everton, they only have like 4 or 5 shots on target in 5 games.

    0
  • santon3

    Jan 17, 2018 at 2:36 PM

    Comment #3

    even if the takeover happens this week, there’s not much Rafa can do this transfer window and not many good options available in reasonable price.

    0
  • Toonces

    Jan 17, 2018 at 2:36 PM

    Comment #4

    I don’t understand why Rafa in and of himself is such a key to the deal. If a new owner was to come in, and say Rafa wasn’t here, they could just hire him from whatever job he might be at if they wanted him so badly. In fact Rafa being here serves more to bolster an increased value for NUFC (and Ashley) to have him currently under contract during a takeover. He is an asset to the club.

    For what it’s worth, I’m with Lochinvar and his take – we don’t know anything official. Everything is rumour and innuendo and backchannel reporting. Even the comments today from this Jim White being told an update by a “spokesperson” for PCP. Well what was that spokesperson’s name? Where is the direct quote from this official person? An official spokesperson for PCP wouldn’t need to hide behind an anonymous quote.

    Indeed, it is the hope that kills, but let’s not take our frustrations out on the regular, longtime posters who in good faith shared some rumour and gossip about the takeover. If they in fact were lead down the garden path by some friend, shame on that friend. If they in fact made it up to seek attention, shame on them. But if they just shared something they thought to be true, in the hope of brightening the blog, shame on those of us for treating them like they lied to their mother. Get a grip.

    5
  • santon3

    Jan 17, 2018 at 2:37 PM

    Comment #5

    I don’t think Rafa will quit half way, not in his nature. Probably end of season if things stayed the same.

    1
  • c-dog

    Jan 17, 2018 at 2:43 PM

    Comment #6

    Must get Dubai to check with his mate Bin Salman as to why he wouldn’t go above 250. Also ask him who he’s gonna purchase now with that cash. Brighton? And get Rafa to them?

    7
  • Markaccus

    Jan 17, 2018 at 2:46 PM

    Comment #7

    IF things are over, and IF Mash does not back Rafa properly this month, then my prediction is that we will be looking for a new manager by Feb. Ashley must KNOW that not backing his manager will result in relegation. There can’t be any doubts about that. If he is such a prolific gambler, surely he can spot a bad bet?

    4
  • catchy in norway

    Jan 17, 2018 at 2:48 PM

    Comment #8

    Rotonda

    you might liken me to Ashley and trump, and you might not like them or me, but it does not make what they say or do wrong.

    Ashley made his money and is entitled to do as he pleases, he went into it for the wrong reasons.

    Trump is a result of many years leadership that has left middle America out of touch with the coastal cities.

    and my cause would be decent football, as i find no difference between Pardew’s brand of football or Rafas, and your argument to pardew was his football was poor, so i’m not sure why you like him and not Pardew, surely you would have backed p45 too, they have the same owner/boss

    2
  • Rob1971

    Jan 17, 2018 at 2:51 PM

    Comment #9

    Pitmatic what has there been to enjoy in Ashleys reign so far? 2 relegations, possibly a 3rd! Kinnear (twice), Wise, Llambias, Carver, Mclaren, abusing Keegan, now doing the same with Rafa, sacking Hughton, yes he has been a great owner of the club

    8
  • Rob1971

    Jan 17, 2018 at 2:52 PM

    Comment #10

    Santon teams around us will strengthen before the window shuts, we will possibly only get loans which won’t help us at all ie Kenedy, Everton will finish way above us

    0
  • Reilly

    Jan 17, 2018 at 2:53 PM

    Comment #11

    Mark Douglas
    @MsiDouglas
    Sounds as if Henri Saivet to Montpellier is a goer. Outgoing at #nufc should clear the way for incomings (finally)….

    2
  • Belfast

    Jan 17, 2018 at 2:53 PM

    Comment #12

    Anyone that posts inside info on here or twitter will get absolutely slaughtered if they’re wrong like. It’s just the way it is.

    I took everything with a pinch of salt. So I’m not really that bothered to be honest. But I do understand the anger from those who believed it all and were absolutely convinced it was happening.

    Jib is now reversing quicker than Lewis Hamilton though. So direct all anger towards him. He deserves it.

    10
  • canny lad

    Jan 17, 2018 at 2:54 PM

    Comment #13

    Also not sure why Rafa is so central. His record at NUFC is decent given the constraints, but not much more. At Real before he was disappointing given the riches at his disposal. And if ever we were to get a real moneybags owner they’d have alternatives like Simeone or Allegri.

    1
  • Belfast

    Jan 17, 2018 at 2:54 PM

    Comment #14

    Good article from Luke Edwards about the shenanigans. It’s on his twitter page.

    1
  • Belfast

    Jan 17, 2018 at 2:56 PM

    Comment #15
  • Belfast

    Jan 17, 2018 at 2:56 PM

    Comment #16

    It won’t let me post it for some reason.

    0
  • Toonces

    Jan 17, 2018 at 2:58 PM

    Comment #17

    I have seen a value thrown around for NUFC and what would be a a fair price. I don’t know how to put a value on the club, but Forbes publishes a list each year. In 2016, Newcastle was 20th on this list at £264M. At the time, we were looking at the eventual relegation and the current TV deal was in effect. Pretty much the same conditions as today.

    From June 2017, #20 was Napoli at $379M USD (~£273M at today’s rates). Interestingly, West Ham were 15th at $634M USD (~£459M) and Leicester were 19th at $413M USD (~£299M). Newcastle was no longer in their top 20. West Ham were 17th in 2016 with valuation of £374M, an increase of £85M to 2017, maybe largely due to the stadium lease they received.

    So I would think that Newcastle, in the premier league, should be somewhere in the mix with Leicester and West Ham, probably closer to Leicester. So that £300M-350M range may be as good as any. Just a guess based on my rigorous scientific calculations 🙂 HWTL!

    2
  • Jib

    Jan 17, 2018 at 2:59 PM

    Comment #18
  • Belfast

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:00 PM

    Comment #19

    Hahaha aye that’s bang on the money Jib.

    0
  • Rob1971

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:12 PM

    Comment #20

    Catchy you will be happy the take over has fell through then as Rafa will be gone in the summer and you will get your wish he won’t stay under Ashley after the last 2 transfer windows, Ashley has no interest in moving nufc forward and has been a horrendous owner yet all you do is criticise rafa and never ashley who never backs his managers

    4
  • catchy in norway

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:14 PM

    Comment #21

    Rafa was backed in the summer, he even bought what everyone considers a premiership striker, Joselu came to us from stoke, so if he couldn’t make it at stoke, why take a chance on him?

    we bought Murphy from out of no where, i don’t remember him from last season, 11 million.
    had anyone ever heard of Legeune? i hadn’t, and from what i have seen, Murphy the striker we had is better than Joselu in every way. Grant hanley was not given the chance Legeune has been given but sold on at a loss.
    Manquillio, came directly from a relegated premiership team,.

    i don’t understand why people say he bought for the future, did he? well why didn’t he buy players in the championship season that could make the leap for a season or two, why did he buy for just one season?

    players like Tom Cairney at fulham, is a player we were linked with, and imo would make the step up to the prem, why not buy players like him who fits a position we needed a player for, why buy Murphy when we had 2 decentish wingers? surly it’s better to buy players you can put in your first team not just the squad?. ryan sessengnon from fulham, 17 looked an outstanding prospect when we played Fulham too,
    the season before, Lazzar Sells Hanley , 15 million wasted.

    Rafa has been backed, and from both sides they could do better, Ashley should spend, but Rafa dosnt have buy everyone recommended to him, just wasting money

    1
  • Farmer Albert

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:31 PM

    Comment #22

    Rob1971 You forgot to mention:
    Pardew attacking an opposition player
    Bellamy going on strike
    Allerdyce, Allerdyce, Allerdyce
    Barton going to jail, and the manager giving him a character reference despite his cowardly attack
    A nasty racist thug attacking his own team mate on the pitch, and the club forcing the player who was attacked to apologise
    Souness getting rid of all the quality in the side, Robert etc
    The highest number of football banning orders in the country
    The protests, the walkouts, the banners, the stay aways
    Leaving Shearer and Ferguson on the bench for a derby
    The manager selling a player for representing his country as captain
    The 13 point lead that was blown
    Kicking fans out of their long held season ticket seats, to make way for people with more money
    The alleged bullying by coaches
    The years since we won a derby
    The coach who put two fingers up at the fans, threatened a fan with violence and attacked another team’s manager
    The star player using cocaine
    Other star players partying on the quayside before games
    A less than star player allegedly raping a woman in a hotel with his mates after a game in London
    Owen’s refusal to play for the club so he could be “fit” for England
    The two managers who walked out on the club midseason
    Gold fish bowl
    Head butting a horse

    Why did you omit these? That’s our club. That’s its history. We ought not to be selective, that might give the impression of bias. Is it because none of those things were anything to do with Ashley?

    1
  • dannitoon

    Jan 17, 2018 at 4:17 PM

    Comment #23

    If it doesnt happen in jan what difference does it make

    0
  • Rob1971

    Jan 17, 2018 at 4:27 PM

    Comment #24

    So while mentioning those things albert mention the football from those periods, title challenges top 4 finishes, cup finals, the owners backing the managers with funds for players, has ashley ever done that, do you honestly think ashley is a good owner for nufc?

    2
  • Rob1971

    Jan 17, 2018 at 4:28 PM

    Comment #25

    Albert in that time were we ever relegated twice by the same owner, in relegation battles every season?

    2
  • dig-n-dig22

    Jan 17, 2018 at 7:46 PM

    Comment #26

    This is all Ashleys fault. He put the club in the shop window without any window dressing advertising, a Championship squad. He should have acted immediately when the rot set in before Christmas and made funds available to Rafa as soon as the shop window opened and protected his investment, instead he played chicken with the Staveley group and lost. Neither party benefited if NUFC got relegated but at the end of the day the Staveley group can walk away and it will cost them a penny but relegation will cost Ashley millions through lack of investment but this is nothing new to him.

    1

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