Rafa Will Only Stay At Newcastle If We Get A New Ambitious Owner


Former Newcastle winger David Ginola has been speaking to TalkSport about whether Rafa will stay long term at Newcastle.

Rafa’s three-year contract runs out a year come June, but he will decide on his long-term future before that.

The positives are that Rafa sees Newcastle as a colossal sleeping giant with great fan support.

Rafa also knows that Newcastle is a real football City and if we had a successful team St. James’ Park would be sold-out for every game – that’s what’s happening now, and we are fighting relegation!

But current owner Ashley has refused to back the manager for three successive transfer windows, and Rafa is not too happy at that.

Oil and water don’t mix, and Rafa and Ashley are incompatible – in football terms.

David Ginola – while at Newcastle in the 1990s

This is what Ginola has said, and he pretty much hits the nail on the head:

“It’s a bit complex. You have a great manager there – that’s a big chance for the club right now.”

“Do I think Rafa Benitez will stick with Newcastle United for the next two or three years? I have a very big doubt.”

“I think he wants to see a club which will secure the future in terms of investment, how he will be able to invest on players.”

“Does he walk? I think he will wait some weeks before making a decision; they’re in a bad position in the table, they are competing against relegation and he has to fight against that.”

“But I think his main concern is am I going to stay at Newcastle thinking I’m going to play year in year out to avoid relegation or to play in the Championship again; I don’t think so.”

“Rafa is going to have plenty of propositions on the table, he is going to be a manager who is on the market and soon as he is on the market, clubs will run after him.”

“I have no doubt that Rafa Benitez is doing a great job and will do a great job if Mike Ashley or someone else gives him the opportunity to do so.”

It’s relatively simple – if Ashley sells the club and the new owner matches the ambitions Rafa has for Newcastle – then Rafa will stay.

If that doesn’t happen Rafa will leave, but he could still see out his contract at Newcastle if we are still a Premier League club for next season.

It would be Rafa’s Rafa’s third and last year of his contract.

Premier League clubs will be lining up to hire him in eighteen months time, and West Ham would probably be the favorites.

Rafa trusts the owners there.

Comments welcome.



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405 comments so far

  • Toonces

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:01 PM

    Comment #1

    I have seen a value thrown around for NUFC and what would be a a fair price. I don’t know how to put a value on the club, but Forbes publishes a list each year. In 2016, Newcastle was 20th on this list at £264M. At the time, we were looking at the eventual relegation and the current TV deal was in effect. Pretty much the same conditions as today.

    From June 2017, #20 was Napoli at $379M USD (~£273M at today’s rates). Interestingly, West Ham were 15th at $634M USD (~£459M) and Leicester were 19th at $413M USD (~£299M). Newcastle was no longer in their top 20. West Ham were 17th in 2016 with valuation of £374M, an increase of £85M to 2017, maybe largely due to the stadium lease they received.

    So I would think that Newcastle, in the premier league, should be somewhere in the mix with Leicester and West Ham, probably closer to Leicester. So that £300M-350M range may be as good as any. Just a guess based on my rigorous scientific calculations. 🙂

    HWTL!

    0
  • northernirishtoon

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:04 PM

    Comment #2

    I think the luke edwards article is absolutely spot on

    Put the takeover on the back burner and get some signings in de fcuk

    1
  • Reilly

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:15 PM

    Comment #3

    short was looking for 240 mill for the scum a few seasons back.are we really only worth 10mill more than them.

    2
  • Optimistic Panda

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:16 PM

    Comment #4

    Lindisfarne.

    Regarding the ground

    What I should have said is it’s pretty much worthless as a asset.

    We own the bricks and mortar someone else owns the land.

    If a new owner wanted to extend but was unable they’d have to find a new plot, all they’d get for sjp is the scrap value of bricks mortar steel etc after the demolition company was paid.

    Same goes if the lease for some reason was cancelled, the club would have no choice but to pull the ground down at their expense

    As it stand it’s fine as 52000 tickets are enough but the ground isn’t really a club asset, because it’s on someone else’s land it’s practically worthless.

    1
  • Jail for Ashley

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:17 PM

    Comment #5

    magscar,
    So making an assumption that 250M would be a fair price, given our current position and that Villa recently sold for 80M, makes me an amateur accountant. Well after backing Ashley for so long, you’re really looking like a very amateur judge of character.

    5
  • Rob1971

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:18 PM

    Comment #6

    Catchy you will be happy the take over has fell through then as Rafa will be gone in the summer and you will get your wish he won’t stay under Ashley after the last 2 transfer windows, Ashley has no interest in moving nufc forward and has been a horrendous owner yet all you do is criticise rafa and never ashley who never backs his managers

    7
  • Jail for Ashley

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:19 PM

    Comment #7

    Reilly.
    What someone is looking for and what someone eventually gets are two entirely different things. He couldn’t sell them at that price. So the answer to your question would be no. We are not.

    2
  • Reilly

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:20 PM

    Comment #8

    in pcp eyes we are.

    0
  • Ruddy Marveaux-lous

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:20 PM

    Comment #9

    Jib

    Seriously, have a day off mate.

    4
  • catchy in norway

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:22 PM

    Comment #10

    Jail,

    I may not agree with you on a lot of things, but honestly thank you, you where the only one who said i should be allowed to say my piece regardless.

    it’s becoming a bit of a banana republic in here, say anything you like as long as it’s pro rafa and anti Ashley.

    but you went up in my opinion of you, regardless.

    so thank you.

    i can not understand why Ed should be troubled with petty stuff like trying blocking for only opinions.

    1
  • Ruddy Marveaux-lous

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:24 PM

    Comment #11

    80% of Southampton F.C. was purchased for 210m – making their overall value 262.5m

    With their superior youth infrastructure, superior first team squad (albeit underperforming) and arguably more stable position in the PL are they only worth more than 10m than us?

    250m was a great price, one that MA should have snapped up immediately.

    5
  • Jail for Ashley

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:25 PM

    Comment #12

    Shall we all bring Stavely/PCP out banners to the Burnley game to vent our frustrations at them.

    0
  • Jail for Ashley

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:29 PM

    Comment #13

    Reilly,
    If that post was in answer to mine I think you missed the point. Just because Short wanted 240M is doesn’t mean they were worth that much. Ashley first claimed he wanted 400M for us. From my amateur point of view we are worth 260M which would give the fat man his money back.

    0
  • Reilly

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:30 PM

    Comment #14

    Staveley’s camp: The £250 million straight cash bid was the second that PCP had put to Ashley. The first was up to £350 million, with conditions and based on instalments, Ashley now wants £350 million with no conditions.

    2
  • Pitmatic

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:31 PM

    Comment #15

    Rob

    I never said Ashley was a good owner, never mind a great one. I was thinking purely from a perspective of my own sanity. Far too much libidinal energy invested in all this. Football has become totally preposterous – in a thousand years historians will laugh at us. Here we all are wetting ourselves at the prospect of some Saudi prince taking us over as part of his geopolitical strategising. It’s crazy, no? Ashley is a jerk, but he owns us. We are his serfs. In a sense, we might be happier if just accepted this, or played with it a little.
    Funnily enough, as someone who gets to more away games than to SJP, I find that away followers tend to have this sense about them. There is a lightness there that just doesn’t seem to be present at home anymore.

    2
  • catchy in norway

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:32 PM

    Comment #16

    rob

    i could say you must be happy that it fell through too.

    no one should be happy about this. right now i believe this whole saga has had a negative affect on the whole club, both fans and players.

    i don’t like Rafas football, i think he could play football for 90 mins instead of keeping it tight for 60 and finishing strong.
    sure play defensive vs Man C, but at least try and go for the win vs Swansea,
    Vs Swansea 4of his summer signings were on the bench, one out injured. he waited until swansea scored and made a change, it worked, but sat back for 14 mins before his last sub, he had one sub left to use but chose not to use it.
    we walked away from a game we should be winning with a point, lucky to finish with 10 men and almost losing it right at the very end.
    how can anyone justify the defensive game vs city and his decisions in the swansea game.

    he got another one wrong

    1
  • Jail for Ashley

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:33 PM

    Comment #17

    Pitimac,
    Why don’t you offer to clean his boots. That’s what serfs do.

    1
  • Reilly

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:34 PM

    Comment #18

    jail pcp have undervalued the club its worth more than 250.
    even that bloke from the city who gets on sky says she was pulling a fast one.

    0
  • hibbit

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:35 PM

    Comment #19

    Pitmatic were not serfs were customers

    2
  • magscar

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:35 PM

    Comment #20

    Jail

    I don’t know how many times I have to say it I am not an Ashley lover no matter how many times you try to classify me as such nor am I an amateur accountant I leave these mega deals to the big players. You can do as you wish of course. I am sure with your insight you seen the £50M for a right back before it happened in the summer. I am simply trying to say that pitching a price as you see it is meaningless and pointless. What will be will be and no amount of teeth gnashing about what is a reasonable price in your view will change it although it does suit your agenda.

    1
  • Jail for Ashley

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:36 PM

    Comment #21

    Mike Ashleys serfs, wtf is he ingesting?

    0
  • Reilly

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:36 PM

    Comment #22

    do you honestly think ashley is going to walk away without a profit.

    1
  • hibbit

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:38 PM

    Comment #23

    Reilly
    just as Ashley has over valued us that the nature of business trying to get the best deal

    2
  • Farmer Albert

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:38 PM

    Comment #24

    Reilly Staveley never offered more than £250m with strings attached. She tried to buy Liverpool in the past on the cheap. If she can’t afford the asking price, then she can’t afford to invest heavily in the club.

    5
  • Optimistic Panda

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:40 PM

    Comment #25

    Short said he would take 140m last year and the year before, 240m was including the debt.

    As it stands it’s worth less than 60m now with around 140m debt, are they worth 200m? Lol

    2
  • magscar

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:45 PM

    Comment #26

    How do we actually know for certain what is wanted and who offered what? The media, the ITK’s ?

    What does an NDA cover just the financial position of the Asset/business for sale or the negotiations?

    All sorts of figures being bandied about but how accurate can they be? I honestly can’t see the point in debating on these lines. I want Ashley gone to a buyer who can take us forward the soonest. Still hoping this public posturing doesn’t reflect the true position behind the facade and a deal can be struck and I don’t care for how much and if Ashley is stung or PCP are.

    1
  • Farmer Albert

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:49 PM

    Comment #27

    Optimistic Panda The “someone else” that owns the land are the Freemen of the City. I believe the club have a 999 year lease, and no, you can’t just cancel it and turf out the club, even if they wanted to. But since their legal status is pretty unclear, and the restrictions on use of the Town Moor means they couldn’t ever build on it, so it could never be sold to a housing developer for instance, the club have very close to a freehold occupation, ie. in perpetuity. But without the ability to record it as a saleable asset in the accounts. The club also can never sell the lease to someone else. All they could do would be to hand the land back to the Freemen, to graze their cows.

    5
  • Toonces

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:49 PM

    Comment #28

    Ruddy at #10

    Would suggest the major difference not accounted for is that Newcastle still has some value as a global brand with some recognition. Ashley hasn’t completely destroyed all of that – yet. Southampton as a brand are pretty much just a local UK club. Their reach is not great and their support is much smaller than what Newcastle can claim. In that regard Newcastle is worth more than Southampton. But, Southampton is a good measuring stick as a recently purchased (in part) club.

    0
  • Reilly

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:50 PM

    Comment #29

    Lets hope ashley and pcp can find some middle ground.the last thing this club needs is another 10 year of ashley.

    5
  • Couldnt give a toss about the unwashed

    1
  • catchy in norway

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:54 PM

    Comment #31

    Jail

    it dosnt matter what we all think is a good price, the only 2 that really matter are amanda and mike think it’s worth.

    how long have you known Ashley as a twat? 9 years about?
    so why would amanda not know this, in Money circles i bet they know about Ashley than we do as NufC fans, so why would she try her luck with someone so unreasonable as Mike with a very poor offer, if they were that far apart, why seem to leave it on the table , why not just walk away.

    if i was selling a car for 10k and one guy offers 8 i say thanks for the offer but no thanks, my car is still for sale at 10k, it’s not my problem he dosnt value it the same as me or that he may not be able to afford more than 8k.
    If she is making noises to make it sound like they are going to increase there offer, it has nothing todo with Ashley.
    All the talk on here was from people in the know, Ashley would buy players and be giving the money back later, we’ll that seems to be wrong.

    what about Rafa coming out with there will be good news after that match a feed weeks ago, why would he build people’s hopes up?, that was wrong of him.

    can i just say i have no clue what or how you value the club, players values are very erratic, 35 million for carrol ? 30 million for sissoko, are crazy prices and wildly overpriced, and if liverpool payed 75 million for a defender, Lascelles seems to be respected and his value could easily be 30-50 million, shelvey could easily be 30 million plus, so player value could swing club value by huge amounts

    1
  • magscar

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:55 PM

    Comment #32

    Reilly

    Exactly.

    Posted a while back that the definition of a good deal is when both parties are happy.

    2
  • Optimistic Panda

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:56 PM

    Comment #33

    The reason in the difference to value between Pcp and Ashley could be down to his advertising in the ground.

    Pcp have valued the club and want advertising etc but Ashley doesn’t want to lose the advertising so wants a higher price to do so.

    The real value to Ashley is the advertising so he’ll be setting a price on what that’s worth not just the club.

    2
  • Pitmatic

    Jan 17, 2018 at 3:56 PM

    Comment #34

    Hibbitt

    Customers can shop around a bit. We’re bound into fandom, which is a different state altogether.

    0
  • sparky55

    Jan 17, 2018 at 4:02 PM

    Comment #35

    The only measure as to what our club is worth is what PCP or anyone else are prepared to pay for it. Both sides will have explained to each other why they think the club is worth what they say it’s worth.

    My personal opinion is it’s worth 320 million all day long simply because four years worth of premiership money and the club is paid for. it operates at a profit as it is…it has no debt pile, no outstanding player payments and no charges that can effect it’s value.

    How many business’ do you know of that can get access to a subsidy from a third party that can recoup the money you paid for the business in just four years?

    Most business’ for sale trade at between 8-12% nett profit. You can buy a business for about a 6-7 times multiple and it’ll be down to you to grow it and it may take at least 12 years to earn out what you’ve paid for the business.

    Buy a premiership club like newcastle today and you get back every penny you’ve invested in just 4 years, plus gate money, plus sponsors, plus catering, plus player sales because everything you get for a player from the day you take the club over falls to the bottom line because we have no debt on any players.

    It’s easy worth 320

    11
  • Optimistic Panda

    Jan 17, 2018 at 4:04 PM

    Comment #36

    Farmer

    Who knows the conditions of the lease, I’m sure there’ll be conditions on both sides to get out of it, not saying it would be cancelled more a if.

    I’ve said we don’t own the land so obviously can’t sell it, I understand who owns it, so if the club was ever to leave the site after knocking the ground down they’d also have to landscape which is another cost .

    What you’ve clarified is the reason I don’t see the ground as a asset or major asset, it’s worth nothing unless we stay in it.

    1
  • hibbit

    Jan 17, 2018 at 4:04 PM

    Comment #37

    Pitmatic
    a serf you might be but i’m not
    you can lick his boots all you like but i won’t

    2
  • catchy in norway

    Jan 17, 2018 at 4:05 PM

    Comment #38

    OP

    just say Ashley took a 10 year option to rent the advertising for a million a year, how could anyone argue?
    Advertising is only what someone is willing to pay, and in the prem it varies.

    and i would have thought that would be a very short term view, who ever was buying the club would have had to honour agreements such as short sponsor or give them there money back + maybe some compensation. the new owner could in reality cancel all agreements when they bought the club and put more lucrative ones in place. Ashley has done that hasn’t he.

    1
  • catchy in norway

    Jan 17, 2018 at 4:08 PM

    Comment #39

    Sparky

    well said

    0
  • Ron Knee

    Jan 17, 2018 at 4:08 PM

    Comment #40

    sparky

    But what if there’s a risk the club is relegated?

    1
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