Amanda Staveley’s Bid Just Short Of Newcastle’s Value – Via Mathematical Model


The Star has an exclusive out today about the Newcastle takeover, which has gone into hibernation since the beginning of December and nothing much will happen until Newcastle are safe from relegation.

Dr. Tom Markham is part of Football manager and did his Ph.D. on valuation models, and Kieran Maguire of Liverpool University has used his work to put a value on Newcastle United.

Kieran Maguire of Liverpool University

Here’s what Liverpool University Management School Lecturer Kieran Maguire has said about the mathematical valuation of Newcastle United as reported by the Star:

“We use a valuation model here at the University from a guy call Dr. Tom Markham, who is now head of Sports Interactive – the people that do Football Manager.”

“His PhD was based on this. I’ve crunched the numbers into that and it comes out at around £280m for a cash price.”

“That is also around about the amount of money that Ashley has stuck in on a personal level, so I think when he walks away from Newcastle, he doesn’t want to be out of pocket himself.”

“If PCP stuck in an extra £20M-£30M on top of their final £250M offer I think perhaps he might move on that £300M asking price.”

“I think he is reluctant about the relegation clauses as realistically there’s about a 30% chance of Newcastle being relegated, given the position they’re in.”

“There are 11 clubs separated by six points, so you’ve got a three in 11 chance of going down – that’s quite nasty to contemplate because the money in the Championship is pretty tough.

“The other issue in terms of outstanding concerns is the HMRC investigation into Newcastle and I think that was also built into the first two bids that were made by PCP.”

“But the third bid – which was £250M –  and we’ll take on all the risk ourselves.”

“We’ll take on relegation and the risk of HMRC fines. They say the reason we’re coming in so much lower is because we’re the risk takers.”

“If you take on risk, they make you factor that into a price.”

If we believe all the news on the bids then Ms. Staveley was just £50M short of the minimum Mike Ashley would accept – which was an upfront cash payment of £300M.

But why wouldn’t Staveley go in with an offer of £275M (split the difference) and maybe clinch the deal?

Not sure what the answer is to that but maybe Mike Ashley will not sell the club to Ms. Staveley after what has happened; there could be bad blood between the two parties.

Hopefully, there’ll not be too much on this takeover stuff in the press until we are safe from relegation and things could start up again.

But we don’t think Mike Ashley will sell the club at the third time of trying and neither do the majority of Newcastle fans.

Will Mike Ashley Be Successful And Sell Newcastle This Year?

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78 comments so far

  • DutchontheToon

    Feb 7, 2018 at 3:21 PM

    Comment #1

    Its not going to happen. end of.

    6
  • Jib

    Feb 7, 2018 at 3:36 PM

    Comment #2

    DutchontheToon

    when you type
    .end of.

    do you:-
    jut out your chin
    while stamping your foot
    and pump your fist ?

    4
  • Lindisfarne

    Feb 7, 2018 at 3:41 PM

    Comment #3

    ASHLEY IS A SHYSTER

    3
  • mactoon

    Feb 7, 2018 at 3:42 PM

    Comment #4

    The one thing the analysts haven’t factored in is the fact that Ashley wants a profit so I doubt he would drop below £300 million

    2
  • Jib

    Feb 7, 2018 at 3:46 PM

    Comment #5

    Lindisfarne is someone’s grannie

    3
  • Lindisfarne

    Feb 7, 2018 at 4:11 PM

    Comment #6

    I do not suck eggs

    4
  • AncientC

    Feb 7, 2018 at 4:21 PM

    Comment #7

    Joey Barton:

    “Steve McClaren wanted me to go back. That was the year I joined Burnley – he asked me to come back but Mike Ashley said you can have anybody but him! It was good to know I made that an impression on [Ashley] because the feeling is definitely mutual.”

    It makes you wonder if the club’s fortunes may have turned out differently if Barton was signed. He wasn’t just a good player, but a strong leader of the players around him. Personally one of my favourite Newcastle players of all time.

    16
  • RobLeenio

    Feb 7, 2018 at 4:27 PM

    Comment #8

    Ancient C, I think you can judge some players on how much they were hated by the opposition fans – Barton, Bellamy and Batty are all in this club. I liked them all, but weirdly wasn’t keen on Butt

    2
  • AncientC

    Feb 7, 2018 at 4:32 PM

    Comment #9

    RobLeenio, yes, I agree. I remember dispising Jason McAteer at Liverpool, but I wouldn’t have been complaining if he was doing it for us.

    3
  • toon kk

    Feb 7, 2018 at 4:35 PM

    Comment #10

    We did the right thing in the transfer window bringing in three quality loan signings, there’s no way Mash would spend their value on new players so had we spent money it wouldn’t have be enough to strengthen our squad sufficiently.
    Even if we survive will there be enough money to improve, probably not.

    6
  • hibbit

    Feb 7, 2018 at 4:41 PM

    Comment #11

    there will be NO improvement under Ashley.
    *never has been never will be*

    19
  • ShirebrookToon

    Feb 7, 2018 at 4:57 PM

    Comment #12

    Good to see Slimani fully fit and training with the lads. Mourinho has never won at St. James’. Let’s hope that doesn’t change on Sunday.

    Is it true Rafa has a knack for finishing strong in the final 10 games of a season?

    3
  • Ron Knee

    Feb 7, 2018 at 5:00 PM

    Comment #13
  • giimps

    Feb 7, 2018 at 5:06 PM

    Comment #14

    The club is not worth 300m to anyone else unless taking in future earnings possibilities, when an investor can bankroll a poor championship team after purchasing them for a pittance and get in the premier league that way.
    Wolves are a classic example, as are Huddersfield, Brighton not so much as they have grown organically.
    Choose the right team, get the right people in and away you go, in a couple of seasons you can be reaping the rewards of premiership football and parachute payments for year, and that’s if you go straight down.
    Having said that, when you consider the money for being in the premier league now and in the future…..there is a case for the club being worth that and more….as long as we’re in it

    7
  • H.Houdini

    Feb 7, 2018 at 5:13 PM

    Comment #15

    Jib on the self likes there then

    6
  • jane

    Feb 7, 2018 at 5:17 PM

    Comment #16

    “he asked me to come back but Mike Ashley said you can have anybody but him!”

    well said Mike. Barton is a nasty piece of work.

    4
  • jane

    Feb 7, 2018 at 5:19 PM

    Comment #17

    “there will be NO improvement under Ashley.
    *never has been never will be*”

    hibbit your track record for knowing the future isn’t very good.

    4
  • jane

    Feb 7, 2018 at 5:23 PM

    Comment #18

    “Having said that, when you consider the money for being in the premier league now and in the future”

    even Ashley should be able to consolidate especially with Rafa at the helm.

    1
  • Bladey

    Feb 7, 2018 at 5:57 PM

    Comment #19

    Hobbit
    Hasn’t got a clue about the present never mind the future
    ASH OUT RAFA OUT

    2
  • Moonraker15

    Feb 7, 2018 at 6:03 PM

    Comment #20

    Shirebrook
    Rafa always used to finish strong whilst at Liverpool as I recall and winning the last 3 games last season won us the Championship!

    1
  • ShirebrookToon

    Feb 7, 2018 at 6:10 PM

    Comment #21

    Moonraker

    Cheers. I thought I’d read or heard it somewhere.

    Let’s hope he continues that trend this season.

    2
  • Moonraker15

    Feb 7, 2018 at 6:11 PM

    Comment #22

    If NUFC were successful, say top six and challenging for CL place, the value of the club would probably double. Ashley isn’t interested in success; only profit.

    He doesn’t get the fact that football clubs aren’t made for profit alone

    5
  • H.Houdini

    Feb 7, 2018 at 6:18 PM

    Comment #23

    Jane at it now.

    2
  • jane

    Feb 7, 2018 at 6:57 PM

    Comment #24

    what’s that? telling the truth?

    1
  • jane

    Feb 7, 2018 at 7:01 PM

    Comment #25

    “If NUFC were successful, say top six and challenging for CL place, the value of the club would probably double. Ashley isn’t interested in success; only profit.”

    if the value of the club doubled maybe the profit would increase as well, wouldn’t that be an incentive for Ashley to make the club successful? you would think so.

    1
  • hibbit

    Feb 7, 2018 at 7:07 PM

    Comment #26

    jane/jib
    and your a pain in the arse !!

    11
  • hibbit

    Feb 7, 2018 at 7:09 PM

    Comment #28

    Bladey
    the fun thing is i know all about you ????

    3
  • welshgeordie9

    Feb 7, 2018 at 7:09 PM

    Comment #29

    I like our January signings, we have got world class players on our hands.

    0
  • jane

    Feb 7, 2018 at 7:10 PM

    Comment #30

    sorry hibbit you are ok.

    0
  • welshgeordie9

    Feb 7, 2018 at 7:12 PM

    Comment #31

    Top ten finish here we come.

    1
  • GeordieTwo

    Feb 7, 2018 at 7:13 PM

    Comment #32

    I ran the valuation of the club through my own mathematical model and came up with a value (including current owner) or 10 pounds 3p???? I wonder what the discrepancy is? Oh, that’s right I left the current owner in. Hmmm.

    5
  • jane

    Feb 7, 2018 at 7:13 PM

    Comment #33

    but after a such a high profile mis-judgement i would of thought you would be more careful.

    1
  • jane

    Feb 7, 2018 at 7:15 PM

    Comment #34

    “Top ten finish here we come”

    which team are you talking about?

    1
  • GeordieTwo

    Feb 7, 2018 at 7:15 PM

    Comment #35

    Finally ran out of things to say about the current sad state of affairs. I look forward to improved performances over the remaining 12 matches and remaining up by the skin of our teeth. Here’s hoping lads.

    3
  • GeordieTwo

    Feb 7, 2018 at 7:17 PM

    Comment #36

    Rafa out Bladey? Who would you put in his place?

    1
  • jane

    Feb 7, 2018 at 7:18 PM

    Comment #37

    “Finally ran out of things to say about the current sad state of affairs.”

    really that’s great news

    1
  • RobLeenio

    Feb 7, 2018 at 7:22 PM

    Comment #38

    Geez Jane what’s eating you tonight? Rod and Freddy stand you up?
    🙂

    6
  • jane

    Feb 7, 2018 at 7:25 PM

    Comment #39

    “your a pain in the arse !!”

    maybe a little sometimes 😐

    0
  • GeordieTwo

    Feb 7, 2018 at 7:25 PM

    Comment #40

    Jib/Jane/Jeff you’re on the adult blog. Get your mam to help you find the childrens’ blogs.

    8

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