The 3 Unknowns – And How TV Rights Deal Could Impact Newcastle Takeover

When the winners of five of the seven UK Premier League TV rights packages were announced yesterday the question for Newcastle fans was what impact (if any) would this have on the possible takeover.

The five deals added up to around £4.464B and are less than the current deal l is £5.14B, with the price per game being around £9.3M, down from the current £10.2M.

The overseas TV rights could be a lot more than the current deal of £3B so that Overseas TV rights plus the United Kingdom could possibly turn out to be more than the current £8.14B.

If it is higher overall, then that’s when Mike Ashley could raise the price of Newcastle United based on the additional future revenues – always assuming we can stay in the Premier League.

Football finance expert Kieran Maguire of Liverpool University has said the TV rights deal could have consequences in Mike Ashley’ attempts to sell Newcastle.

Mike Ashley – will he raise the price of Newcastle?

This a comment from Kieran Maguire in the Star today – as republished in the Chronicle:

“The elephant in the room is that the Premier League is the most popular sporting product globally.”

“The Premier League still think there is a lot of growth potential in the overseas TV Rights deals.”

“If Mike Ashley thinks that those prices are going to be very high, he’s going to factor that into the valuation of the club.”

“Clearly PCP want to take a more conservative view of that, so that is why there is a gap in those prices.”

“Once we know the value of those deals, then you have got more certainty.”

“And I think then you could see parties coming together and saying ‘well now we know what the TV money is going to be going through to 2022.”

“They will have a more secure sense of forecasting data, from which we can come up with an agreed price’.

“Ashley is going to say one price, PCP are going to say another because it is in their best interests to do so.”

Basically, one of the unknowns that impact the Newcastle deal will be known fairly soon – the TV Rights deal for the next three years starting in the summer of 2019.

But there’s still a second unknown; whether Newcastle United will be a Premier League club next season – and hopefully, we can do that sooner rather than later – by keep winning our games.

The third unknown is the HMRC investigation over alleged extensive tax evasion of player transfers by Newcastle, which will not be decided for quite some time.

Once Newcastle are safe in the Premer league that’s when we should see more offers if any are to be made.

But the majority of fans don’t think Mike Ashley will sell the club this year.

Will Mike Ashley Be Successful And Sell Newcastle This Year?

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Comments welcome.

13 comments so far

  • duncandisorderly

    Feb 14, 2018 at 3:30 PM

    Comment #1

    Good to see Dummett getting some Love on here. Ive always appreciated his defending but I f only he could improve his distribution, he’d be class.

    My main concern with defence is the other fullback – while Dummett makes wingers’ lives very difficult, it seems like our right flank offers an open invitation to cross. Thoughts?

  • Bobbybee

    Feb 14, 2018 at 3:34 PM

    Comment #2

    Jail, my point exactly. How is either Ashley or Oysten – and a few more – fit and proper people to run football clubs? Bizarre.

    Don’t think the tax thing will be an issue. They were only talking about a discrepancy of about five million from what I remember. Hardly going to break us!
    We need to stay up and hope someone makes an offer Ashley can’t refuse.

  • Bobbybee

    Feb 14, 2018 at 3:36 PM

    Comment #3

    Duncan, the problem on the right recently has been Ritchie failing to track back and leaving Yedlin trying to mark two players time after time. If he goes to one, he leaves the other.

  • Jail for Ashley

    Feb 14, 2018 at 3:38 PM

    Comment #4

    I never mind being proved wrong and always had Dummet down as a squad player who’d be ideal sitting on the bench in case a full back or CB got injured and who could keep either on their toes, he sums to have really stepped up and could actually save us having to buy a LB if he only he can stay fit for a majority of the season.

  • Jail for Ashley

    Feb 14, 2018 at 3:40 PM

    Comment #5

    I’m sure there’s people in Ershington that could make the fcuker an offer he couldn’t refuse 😮

  • Jail for Ashley

    Feb 14, 2018 at 3:44 PM

    Comment #6

    I’m pretty sure that it wasn’t Rafa’s plan to have a RB like Yedlin as the number one. Imo he was bought in mind to be back up to a better player who wouldn’t need to rely on Ritchie being so defensive. But what do I know???

  • duncandisorderly

    Feb 14, 2018 at 3:49 PM

    Comment #7

    Bobby, can’t say I’ve really noticed Ritchie going missing on defence but will be looking more closely next home game! I’ve always thought of him as one of the most committed players and he never really gets any abuse from the guys around me. I did particularly notice Kenedy doing a lot of covering on the left though, so maybe that says something

  • duncandisorderly

    Feb 14, 2018 at 3:57 PM

    Comment #8

    Jail, yes you’re right about Dummett’s fitness, and I always saw him as a better CB than a LB. what do I know though – I was convinced that Kevin Mbabu was the real deal

  • Jib

    Feb 14, 2018 at 4:04 PM

    Comment #9

    1.82 metres = 5 feet and 11.6534 inches
    Unfortunately some of the less intelligent
    (stand up Chancel)
    read 5.9 feet as 5 feet 9 inches

  • Toonces

    Feb 14, 2018 at 4:11 PM

    Comment #10

    Read some comments in the previous day or so about Kenedy. The premise that Kenedy is being figured out by the opposition based on how he did in the match on Sunday. This may prove to be true, and all players need to adjust to how teams play against them, but we need to remember that he was up against Valancia. Most weeks he won’t be playing against someone like that. To be fair to Kenedy, Valencia didn’t get forward very much having to worry about Kenedy until he was subbed off.

  • toonluvva

    Feb 14, 2018 at 5:40 PM

    Comment #11

    Ed has identified 3 areas that he considers will impact on Mr Ashleys’s decision about the sale of NUFC.

    They all valid reasons that would influence a rational owner, but time after time Mr Ashley has not done what many observers have expected.

    In my opinion, he will sell up under 2 conditions :-

    1 The money he receives for advertising SportsDirect is no longer sufficient for his vast financial appetite.


    2 someone offers more than he wants for the club.

  • giimps

    Feb 14, 2018 at 8:30 PM

    Comment #12

    Ritchie has a habit of drifting into the middle of the park when we’re in possession of the ball, if we lose it, he’s out of position which quit often leaves our rob exposed, also, when yedlin is exposed we’re susceptible to long diagonal balls from right to left back position ,leading to crosses into the. Box or wingers dribbling into the box.
    This don’t happen with Dummet as he’s more disciplined , but if Dummet is covering the left side our cb can and should move across to defend the rb position until he gets back and one of the midfielders drop in to fill the gap.

  • Graeme

    Feb 14, 2018 at 10:34 PM

    Comment #13

    Toonluvva @ 11 Shite Direct dont pay a penny for their advertising at SJP. Don’t understand your comment!!


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