How Likely Is The Newcastle Takeover This Summer?


There is unlikely to be much happening with the takeover unless and until Newcastle are safe in the Premier League.

We need four wins and 40 points to get to safety so we are hoping we can get all 3 points at Bournemouth on Saturday, but it will not be easy against a well-managed side.

So since around Christmas time, there has not been too much real news about the takeover, but that should change as we get towards the end of the season and hopefully Rafa (and our gutsy players) can save us from the drop.

The takeover dragged on for almost three months last year once Ashley said he wanted to sell the club.

His stated goal was to sell the club by Christmas, but that didn’t materialize, and he has said he will not accept the offer on the table from Amanda Staveley of £250M cash up front.

Rafa Benitez – at the moment he is Newcastle United

But with the new UK Premier League TV rights deal less than the existing one of £5.1B, that offer from Staveley now looks a more attractive one for Ashley.

There is a phantom second bidder reported in the local papers, and maybe they will show themselves before the summer.

But at this moment we would estimate the chances of a takeover happening before July to be low.

The likelihood is there will be no takeover by the time the summer transfer window gets underway.

Then the question will be whether Mike Ashley give Rafa good money to spend this summer.

If he does give Rafa say £70M to spend plus whatever he can get from outgoing transfers, Rafa will be happy enough.

That’s because he’s been so constrained by Ashley over the last three transfer windows.

By the summer hopefully, Rafa will also have been able to persuade Ashley and Charnley to change the way Newcastle do the transfers – a change is badly needed.

We need to be more decisive and much quicker in the way we do deals.

And if Slimani and Dubravka do well in the final 11 games we could have two quick signings right there.

It will be more challenging to get Kenedy in permanently – perhaps a season-long loan deal can be negotiated for him?

Rafa will want to get deals done quickly whoever the owner is.

But even if Ashley remains for the time being – as long as he gives Rafa decent money to spend in the summer then Benitez should be fine.

Slowly but surely Rafa continues to rebuild the team and the club.

Ashley has said he wants to tie Rafa down to a long-term deal at Newcastle – apparently to protect his own investment in the club.

If that happens and Rafa has money to spend this summer that will be a much better position Rafa has been in for the last year or so on Tyneside.

And of course, we are hoping Ashley will sell the club and all those Sports Direct signs – there are 2 million of them by our estimate – will finally be taken down.

Wonder what St. James’ Park will look like without all those ghastly signs?

Beautiful.

Comments welcome.


50 comments so far

  • JohnJ

    Feb 19, 2018 at 10:21 AM

    Comment #1

    One things for sure – The sooner Ashley sells up & goes away (a polite form of another expression) the better it will be for Newcastle United – The Team – The Fans and for everyone connected with the club in any way at all. Just go Mike Ashley and gom soon!

    4
  • Jib

    Feb 19, 2018 at 10:21 AM

    Comment #2

    I cannot really see past PCP and the
    Reuben Brothers.

    They already own a big chunk of
    Newcastle city centre
    plus
    Gosforth Park racecourse

    It would appear a natural
    progression for them.

    5
  • JohnJ

    Feb 19, 2018 at 10:21 AM

    Comment #3

    One things for sure – The sooner Ashley sells up & goes away (a polite form of another expression) the better it will be for Newcastle United – The Team – The Fans and for everyone connected with the club in any way at all. Just go Mike Ashley and go soon!

    1
  • wynsleap

    Feb 19, 2018 at 10:24 AM

    Comment #4

    A phantom second bidder? Yeah – right.
    Do you really believe everything Ashley tells you?

    1
  • Geordie-john

    Feb 19, 2018 at 10:26 AM

    Comment #5

    It’s all speculation again, However SJP without the GREEDY COCK-ney’s signs would be more like home. IF ONLY !!
    First of all we need Rafa to stay as the Gaffer. I think the contract stall is his trump card against Fatman as once he signs long term on the dotted line he has little to none leverage against him.
    A good performance against Bournemouth and a possible win would be another step closer to getting rid of the Spurs supporter FOREVER.
    HAWAY THE LADS !!!!!!!!!

    10
  • Jail for Ashley

    Feb 19, 2018 at 10:29 AM

    Comment #6

    Ed keeps talking about forty points. I know it’s normally seen as the benchmark but did West Ham not go down once on 43.

    0
  • Jail for Ashley

    Feb 19, 2018 at 10:32 AM

    Comment #7

    It was 42 points, WBA once stayed up on 34, that must have been when Derby managed eleven points all season.

    1
  • Budge123

    Feb 19, 2018 at 10:33 AM

    Comment #8

    35 or less will be enough to stay up this year I think.
    It’s been less than 40 points for a few years hasn’t it?

    1
  • Budge123

    Feb 19, 2018 at 10:34 AM

    Comment #9

    33 possibly.
    West Bromwich Southampton and one other 2 go.

    0
  • Budge123

    Feb 19, 2018 at 10:36 AM

    Comment #10

    Stoke would be my guess

    1
  • Jail for Ashley

    Feb 19, 2018 at 10:38 AM

    Comment #11

    But it won’t be fine if Ashley stays. He has shown in three consecutive windows now that he is not prepared to listen to the manager. Why did we leave it till the last day of the window to sign two players. It can only have been to save on a months wages. The bloke is not interested at all in bringing any type of success.

    5
  • BarcelonaMag

    Feb 19, 2018 at 10:40 AM

    Comment #12

    Prepare yourselves for exactly the same thing happening in the summer. As the club is supposedly up for sale sale, Ashley will say that the can’t be expected to spend any money on new players. Then he will say that no suitable bids materialised, and that any take-over is off. This will happen at the end of the transfer window. Sound familiar?

    12
  • Bigjim67

    Feb 19, 2018 at 10:49 AM

    Comment #13

    Barcelona. I can see the same thing happening, if it does i don’t think Rafa will still be here.

    3
  • Nufc 4ever

    Feb 19, 2018 at 11:03 AM

    Comment #14

    If we are going to be exact about stats James Milners debut was on the 14th August 2004 not the 18th. Not sure previously why there was a debate about it. The next 4 games Bounemouth, Bindippers, Southampton, and Huddersfield. I hope 6 or 7 points but our record at home against the lower teams not good.

    0
  • Jail for Ashley

    Feb 19, 2018 at 11:04 AM

    Comment #15

    Rafa Benitez still wants trophies. They are what you are judged on when going down the worlds best managers lists. He will not stay here to fight Ashleys relegation battles year after year. If he stays I can honestly see us going the same way as them lot down the road.
    It would cost him but I think he would actually take pleasure in it.

    2
  • Jail for Ashley

    Feb 19, 2018 at 11:06 AM

    Comment #16

    NUFC 4 ever,
    It stemmed from Jib saying that players here were never developed and that even SBR and KK only bought ready made off the peg players.

    1
  • mactoon

    Feb 19, 2018 at 11:14 AM

    Comment #17

    Firstly the new TV deal may not be as large as anticipated but it is secured for the next 3 seasons and there is enough value in that for Ashley to want more than the £300m currently quoted. In any event (and most importantly) Staveley will need to increase her current bid or there will be no deal.

    Next she will have to show Ashley that she is serious by proving she has the funds to enable a purchase, maybe set up a holding account to hold the funds and show him she is in a financial position to purchase the club. This will be essential, especially given the quote from a spokesman for her reported backers the Rueben Brothers back in January (The Guardian) “It is true that we did have a look at it, but nothing actually happened, we are not investing in Newcastle United either as Reuben Brothers or as any individuals” If that’s true, where’s the money coming from?

    For all this to take place we have to remain in the Premiership and it looks as though this is going down to the wire meaning Ashley could still be in charge during the summer.

    With regards to the summer transfer window, regardless of how much TV money or profit we make, the transfer budget will only be as much as Ashley is willing to release and he showed his cards during January, two loan deals on the last day of the window. He has no intention of spending money on something he is trying to sell and this will no doubt remain the position in the summer so I doubt there will be any decent money made available for Rafa.

    With all this going on, I think it’s just a matter of time before Rafa has had enough. I think he does want to stay but if Ashley is still in charge of the next transfer window he will have some tough decisions to make.

    8
  • Jail for Ashley

    Feb 19, 2018 at 11:20 AM

    Comment #18

    mactoon,
    But surely she must have shown funds to set the ball rolling in the first place, going through those Freshfields solicitors can’t have been cheap either.

    3
  • SPRINGY

    Feb 19, 2018 at 11:38 AM

    Comment #19

    Hibbit
    Sorry never got back to u about maddison and murphy….30m for the 2 wouldn’t be bad money in this daft money age…maddison looks and intelligent player,craft,skill,speed and can pass well,score and create…very similar to cairney,murphy is quick more skillful then i had realised tbh,grafts like a trojan…not a big scorer but that may come in time so not to bad a price,yeah we have to get premier league class striker in who score as a priority but I’d be ok with us going after them…..not sure it will tho.

    4
  • Jib

    Feb 19, 2018 at 11:40 AM

    Comment #20

    Nufc 4ever
    If you want to be really pedantic
    JM’s debut was on a weds evening
    on 4th August in a friendly vs Celtic
    at Celtic Park.

    0
  • Ron Knee

    Feb 19, 2018 at 11:44 AM

    Comment #21

    Re Staveley’s bid, I read somewhere that she spent half a million pounds preparing it.

    2
  • Jail for Ashley

    Feb 19, 2018 at 11:45 AM

    Comment #22

    martoon,
    This guff about Rafa been given all the funds available as well. He may well just decide to pay himself back 30M out of this year’s profits.

    1
  • mactoon

    Feb 19, 2018 at 11:45 AM

    Comment #23

    @Jail
    Who knows but the fact Ashley came out afterwards and said any future bidders had to show the funds up front would indicate otherwise. Maybe these sort of deals are negotiated under the assumption that the buyer has the funds without showing them but the problem I have with all the reports is that the Rueben Brothers were reported to be the main backers yet their spokesman stated that they just ‘had a look at it, but nothing actually happened’. That doesn’t sound to me like funds were in place.

    1
  • Jail for Ashley

    Feb 19, 2018 at 11:51 AM

    Comment #24

    Nufc 4ever
    If we pick up a few points from that little run we could well be ensuring our safety the day we play WBA. How sweet would that be, giving them an absolute pasting and sending them down.

    3
  • Nufc 4ever

    Feb 19, 2018 at 11:53 AM

    Comment #25

    Jib
    If you put the 18th and i was there at celtic that is not a official debut so why now the 4th. Make your mind up it was you for some reason telling everyone im just putting you right

    5
  • Ron Knee

    Feb 19, 2018 at 11:54 AM

    Comment #26

    mactoon

    I don’t think the Reuben Brothers were ever the main backers.

    2
  • Jail for Ashley

    Feb 19, 2018 at 11:54 AM

    Comment #27

    mactoon,
    Aye who knows. Not sure why you would go to all the trouble of hiring A list solicitors though if you didn’t have the funds to go ahead. If it was a publicity stunt for her then it was a very expensive one and what did she gain from it.

    4
  • mactoon

    Feb 19, 2018 at 12:01 PM

    Comment #28

    I think she would just have discussions with potential backers and line them up to ‘mobilise’ their involvement once the deal is agreed. Then she would draft up a financial plan involving the funds and a business plan for transfers and the club in general. This would (as Ron Knee says) cost a lot of money but I would expect that given the work needed to prepare a purchase of this size and complexity and I doubt producing purchase funds would be involved at this stage.

    1
  • Jail for Ashley

    Feb 19, 2018 at 12:10 PM

    Comment #29

    mactoon,
    Neither of us know and I can’t see us agreeing so we’ll have to agree to disagree. I just don’t know why someone would go to so much expense to then not have any money to purchase it. Did it not all through because he wanted more money. She claimed through Caulkin that she’d made three different bids. Unless she told him a pack of lies as well.

    2
  • AncientC

    Feb 19, 2018 at 12:11 PM

    Comment #30

    Staveley in her own words stated that she wanted to build the club and invest £200 million into the squad. Of course, she could be making it all up—that makes a lot of sense. The club wasn’t worth £300 million when Staveley was showing interest. The sale of Southampton put the value into perspective. The club will be worth more in the summer once/if PL football is secured, but a number starting with a 3 is a stretch. The new TV deal isn’t more lucrative than the last one, and there is the risk that TV money could go down after 3 years.

    2
  • Jail for Ashley

    Feb 19, 2018 at 12:15 PM

    Comment #31

    Ancient,
    Aye. There’s now the dreaded scenario that she or whoever else might not think it a viable investment for the price if it’s deemed that the PL bubble may be about to burst.

    2
  • AncientC

    Feb 19, 2018 at 12:18 PM

    Comment #32

    £250-£300 million to buy the club, then £200 million invested into the squad. It would be a long time before Staveley could see a return on an investment like that. It wouldn’t be like Ashley to be unreasonable.

    1
  • Jail for Ashley

    Feb 19, 2018 at 12:19 PM

    Comment #33

    Little disclaimer there. Nothing sweet at all about sending WBA down but will be absolutely priceless being able to sing to auld rubber lips. You’re getting sacked in the morning. He was completely ignored when he came here with Palace two years ago.

    1
  • Jail for Ashley

    Feb 19, 2018 at 12:21 PM

    Comment #34

    Bollorcks,
    I’m away 🙁

    0
  • martoon

    Feb 19, 2018 at 12:32 PM

    Comment #35

    Jail if the rumours are true that he only has 2 games to save his job then he may not even be there by the time we play them!

    2
  • mactoon

    Feb 19, 2018 at 12:40 PM

    Comment #36

    Not disagreeing with you Jail. I think the deals were on the table as part of the negotiations and she had funds available but I just think the funds she was going to use were not in escrow, i.e. in a holding account where Ashley could physically see the Wonga (oops)

    She would have discussed the bids with her financial backers who would have asked for certain conditions to be met before they released the funds (like agreeing details for the sale of a house before exchanging contracts and passing over the money) Now it appears Ashley wants to see the money up front. I don’t think that’s the way these things work.

    2
  • Jib

    Feb 19, 2018 at 12:42 PM

    Comment #37

    SUN BETS SPECIAL OFFER: BET £10 GET A FREE £30 BET
    Baggies boss is now 6/4 to be the next manager to be axed in the top flight

    0
  • manxpie

    Feb 19, 2018 at 12:57 PM

    Comment #38

    We’ve heard it all before tho last time it was they had to buy a box to “prove” their interest its just ashley playing silly buggers again!
    Didnt have to spend much in the window with the perfect excuse a shit load more free advertisement for the SPORTS DIRECT owner through countless reports and newspaper pages on takeover exclusives
    Rinse and repeat

    8
  • Jail for Ashley

    Feb 19, 2018 at 1:22 PM

    Comment #39

    mactoon,
    Let’s just pray he goes before Rafa does.

    3
  • c-dog

    Feb 19, 2018 at 1:23 PM

    Comment #40

    I think 38 points will be enough this year. I don’t fancy Southhampton for the drop. Gonna go with WBA(already gone), Stoke & Huddersfield.

    2

You must log in to post a comment.