If Benitez Repeats What He Did Two Years Ago – We’ll Survive The Drop

When Rafa arrived at Newcastle on Friday 11th March at around 11;58 am (approximately) we had very high hopes that we could survive the drop.

But at the time we had some injuries in the squad, and Paul Dummett, in particular, was one of the players injured.

We did not do well in Rafa’s first four games in charge and lost three and got one point at home to Sunderland.

And that was due to a late equalizer from Aleksandar Mitrovic after 83 minutes to cancel our Jermain Defoe’s goal.

All looked lost after Rafa ‘s 4th game in charge when we lost 3-1 at Southampton and looked a terrible side in the first half.

We had only 25 points from 32 games.


Famous shot of Rafa Benitez marching into St. James Park to sign for Newcastle 

But then Rafa started to get most things right, and we finished the season with 3 wins and 3 draws.

But that was matched by Sunderland and their manager Sam Allardyce, and we finished with 37 points, two points short of Sunderland and were third bottom of the league and relegated.

The rest is history as we came straight back up last season from the Championship ar the Champions although we are again fighting against relegation this season. along with at least nine other Premier League clubs.

Rafa got 13 points from the 10 games he was in charge which was much better than the paltry 24 points Steve McClaren managed to get from the first 28 games.

At the moment we are 5 points better off than two years ago with a much better goal difference which is always worth another point.


And we are in a better position in the league table in 13th position rather than the 18th we were when Rafa first joined Newcastle.


The bottom line is that if Rafa and the players can capture 13 points from our last 10 games – like we did two years ago we should be safe on 42 points.

Let’s hope we can do that – at the very least.

Howay The Lads!!

Can Newcastle Survive Relegation With 10 Games To Play?

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Comments welcome.

40 comments so far

  • RobLeenio

    Feb 27, 2018 at 9:08 AM

    Comment #1

    42 points will be more than enough – the way the league is, that will see us in the lower reaches of mid-table (nose-bleed alert). Schteve McLobotomy should be arrested for the criminal waste of talent which saw us relegated that season – I’m pleased he seems to be persona non-grata at most decent clubs these days.

  • Ron Knee

    Feb 27, 2018 at 9:08 AM

    Comment #2

    The cavalry coming over the hill.

  • Lindisfarne

    Feb 27, 2018 at 9:27 AM

    Comment #4


    Is it me or does Ben Dawson sound more like a professional coach than the previous occupant of the role?

    I did not realise Dan Barlaser is back playing in the U23s and hopefully a feeling of squad competition rather than relying on individuals to produce a win. They still need to get of PL2 though.

  • Lindisfarne

    Feb 27, 2018 at 9:28 AM

    Comment #5

    Have I missed the Rafa backlash about pushing out Colback?!!

  • Jib

    Feb 27, 2018 at 9:35 AM

    Comment #7
  • DubaiMicky

    Feb 27, 2018 at 9:48 AM

    Comment #8
  • Jib

    Feb 27, 2018 at 9:49 AM

    Comment #9


    “Have I missed”

    “I did not realise”

    “Is it me”

    in 2 posts !!!!!

    I bet there’s loads of mirrors in your house


  • RobLeenio

    Feb 27, 2018 at 9:58 AM

    Comment #10

    Jib, that’s no Beast From the East – THIS is the Beast from the East


    Warning, like snow storms, this guy east Southerners for breakfast


  • RobLeenio

    Feb 27, 2018 at 9:59 AM

    Comment #11

    *eats – shucks

  • Lindisfarne

    Feb 27, 2018 at 10:20 AM

    Comment #12


    Referring to oneself is not singularly due to narcissism.

  • Lindisfarne

    Feb 27, 2018 at 10:21 AM

    Comment #13


  • Geordie-john

    Feb 27, 2018 at 10:26 AM

    Comment #14

    Robleenio #10
    I wonder if he plays football ? Imagine him in defence ? Holy Shit !
    Back to football, NUFC shouldn’t be about survival, We should be up in the top 10 at least. WTF have we as supporters had to put up with since the Fatman took over, It’s unbelievable when sit and think back. Now Every transfer window we go through exactly the same shit over and over wondering if we can someone in when in the past we got more or less who we wanted when Freddie and Sir John were in charge. Oh how i wish them days were here again. No disrespect to Rafa achievements as he is doing Fantastic considering the GREEDY COCK-ney factor but could you imagine what we would achieve if he had total control over every aspect of football at NUFC.

  • RobLeenio

    Feb 27, 2018 at 10:38 AM

    Comment #15

    Geordie John, yet still we hope. I’ve seen posters saying “this Summer will be different because of the PL TV money.” While it could be and Ashley may release the money Rafa needs to get his ‘project’ off the ground, we could well be in for another Summer of heartache. As I say, I hope not, but that hope is a curse for NUFC fans sometimes.

    And yes, Valuev in defence would add a whole other meaning to ‘Beast Mode’. Especially with EGB’s buddy Akinfenwa in attack lol

  • toonincheek

    Feb 27, 2018 at 10:53 AM

    Comment #16

    This may sound strange, but I don’t want the players
    to be confident of avoiding the drop.

    My experience is that we would perform better if we
    believed we were really fighting to avoid the drop,
    with the odds being against us.

    It’s when the chips are down, really down, that some
    clubs start over-performing.
    Think – the Mackems last year.

  • RobLeenio

    Feb 27, 2018 at 11:12 AM

    Comment #17

    toonincheek, I hear what you’re saying, we need to ensure we don’t become complacent about our league position and must ensure we battle for every point and I agree. However, Rafa and his loyal lieutenant, Jamaal the Bold, have enough about them to make sure that the squad don’t fall into that trap. I’d far rather be fighting relegation from a vantage point of, say, 4 points above the drop zone than being immersed in the clarts with West Brom

  • RobLeenio

    Feb 27, 2018 at 11:35 AM

    Comment #18

    I’ve posted the below analysis previously, but given this thread is about our chances of staying up, it seems relevant, apologies if it annoys anyone who has already read it.

    On survival requirements. 38 points has been enough to guarantee survival in 18 of the 22 completed Premier League seasons so far (82%). 37 points has been enough in 15 of 22 seasons (68%) and 36 points has been enough in 10 seasons (46%). Given how tight it is at the bottom, I can’t see 3 teams scoring more than 36 points, in which case one point per game average (our running total so far with 2/3rds of the season gone) in the remaining games should see us safe, particularly when our superior goal difference essentially counts as an extra point. It won’t be comfortable viewing, but this season was only ever about survival and if we achieve it, we can kick on

    So, realistically, another 8 points from 10 games would have seen us safe in two thirds of the previous PL seasons, 9 points would do the job in 4/5ths of the previous seasons. Encouraging.

  • dig-n-dig22

    Feb 27, 2018 at 11:40 AM

    Comment #19

    Robleno #10
    I would love to see him in the ring with D J Trump, The Pest From The West,

  • RobLeenio

    Feb 27, 2018 at 11:47 AM

    Comment #20

    Lol dig, not sure Trump’s teeny hands could take it, but it would be well worth a watch

  • Essex Geordie Bill

    Feb 27, 2018 at 12:33 PM

    Comment #21


    Just hope our GD doesn’t take a tonking on Saturday, as I’ve said we’ll do well to come away with a 1-0 defeat.

  • Essex Geordie Bill

    Feb 27, 2018 at 12:35 PM

    Comment #22

    D J Trump would win hands down, he’d talk him into unconsciousness with a torrent of fake news.

  • Essex Geordie Bill

    Feb 27, 2018 at 12:43 PM

    Comment #23

    Without going into the realms of metaphysical turds again, does everybody realise that there is a 20% to 50% chance (very good odds) that we are living in a computer simulation and that the shape of the world could be anything the programmer wants it to be.

    This is actual hypothesized by sensible modern scientific thinking and could well be correct.

    Unfortunately the programmer doesn’t seem to be a Toon fan. 🙁

  • RobLeenio

    Feb 27, 2018 at 12:47 PM

    Comment #24

    EGB, wasn’t that a Faithless track? God is a Geordie…


    I may possibly have mixed up my syllables

  • A Pain in the Blog

    Feb 27, 2018 at 12:58 PM

    Comment #25


    Good appraisal of our run-in requirements at #18.

    The problem is getting the 8-10 points you predict that we need. I can see us getting 4 points between Southampton and Huddersfield and 3 from West Brom. That leaves us between 1 and 3 points short according to your reckoning. If we only manage a draw away at Watford then we would have to get 1 or 2 points from Liverpool, Spurs, Leicester, Arsenal, Everton and Chelsea.

    It’s doable but difficult. Of course, a win at Watford or 6 points from Southampton and Huddersfield would see us right. All the same I wish I had your confidence.

  • Oldgit1

    Feb 27, 2018 at 1:00 PM

    Comment #26

    Bugger, now reported on NUFC website that Shelvey has an injury, sustained in the last match. Typical

  • A Pain in the Blog

    Feb 27, 2018 at 1:05 PM

    Comment #27

    So Jonjo picked up a knee injury in the latter stages of the draw against Bournemouth on Saturday.

    Could that have had something to do with him standing with his hands on his knees in the last 10 minutes for which he was so heavily criticised?

  • RobLeenio

    Feb 27, 2018 at 1:09 PM

    Comment #28

    Cracking article on the Mag, proof of just how awesome Andy Cole was in that first promotion season 93 / 94. He scored 34 goals and got 13 assists in 40 games. It also shows what a fantastic partnership he had with Beardsley. They compare him to Mo Salah with 23 goals and 8 assists in 31 games so far and say he’ll never reach Cole’s record, but of course Wor Andy had two extra games. Also Andy may not have been a Premiership player before that season, but he knew English football whereas Salah has come in completely cold. I think comparing records of this nature kinda takes away from just pure appreciation of some of the finest talent our game has to offer.

  • Novocastrian66

    Feb 27, 2018 at 1:18 PM

    Comment #29

    RobLeenio; Salah was at Chelsea for two years albeit he spent most of his time there on loan to other clubs, he has not come into the Premier League completely cold. He played 13 games for Chelsea.

  • Jib

    Feb 27, 2018 at 1:19 PM

    Comment #30

    I thought the Lampard comments had a
    personal feel to them.

    Strange they are both Romford born and
    came through the West Ham youth system

    I hope Lampard has the courtesy to fone
    JJS and apologise (I doubt it)

  • toon kk

    Feb 27, 2018 at 1:21 PM

    Comment #31

    Had we won our last game I would have been fairly confident we could of had a high chance of survival, but as it is it will depend on other results for our outcome.
    We’re far too inconsistent to garentee safety.

  • Jib

    Feb 27, 2018 at 1:23 PM

    Comment #32

    That’s about the fourth time you’ve tried
    the spelling is “guarantee “

  • RobLeenio

    Feb 27, 2018 at 1:26 PM

    Comment #33

    A Pain in the Blog, there are any number of ways in which we can achieve the points we need. That also suggests there are a large number of ways we can balls it up, I guess. I fancy us to get something from at least a couple of the Liverpool, Arsenal, Leicester, Everton and Chelsea matches where 2-4 points allied to the 7 you imagine vs the other lower placed teams would see us safe. After all, that’s 5 matches and we’ve only been beaten by Man City in the League in 2018, so 5 defeats would be a surprise to me.

  • Essex Geordie Bill

    Feb 27, 2018 at 1:31 PM

    Comment #34

    Bus due to leave depot very soon I would surmise.

  • Essex Geordie Bill

    Feb 27, 2018 at 1:38 PM

    Comment #35


    Watched that and actually enjoyed the music.

    It was mildly amusing the bit where a bunch of mute people were having what I assume to be an argument.

    Not that I’m trying to say something politically incorrect I hasten to add.

    But if God was a Geordie we should have won a skip load of trophies by now.

  • Essex Geordie Bill

    Feb 27, 2018 at 1:39 PM

    Comment #36

    Chinese spelling Galluntee

  • A Pain in the Blog

    Feb 27, 2018 at 1:48 PM

    Comment #37


    Our draws this calendar year have been against Swansea, Burnley, Palace and Bournemouth with wins at Stoke and ManU (!) and that single loss to Man City.

    If I compare the 4 teams that we drew against with the 6 that we need to get a couple of points (in total) from – Liverpool, Arsenal, Leicester, Everton and Chelsea – it still doesn’t encourage me as much as it does you. But I hope your faith is rewarded.

  • Essex Geordie Bill

    Feb 27, 2018 at 1:51 PM

    Comment #38

    Barlaser apparently was in the Crewe squad at the weekend, albeit on the bench and didn’t play so how could he also play for the U23s, are we talking metaphysics again.

  • dig-n-dig22

    Feb 27, 2018 at 2:08 PM

    Comment #39


    Your “God is a Geordie” gives me a great idea . If Ashley doesn’t sell, then we Crucify him onto the Angle of the North, just imagine how many T shirts we could sell with that image on.

  • dig-n-dig22

    Feb 27, 2018 at 2:47 PM

    Comment #40

    A Pain In The Blog #37

    We beat Stoke,West Ham, we drew with Bournemouth who won their last 3 home games we drew with Palace who almost shut out Spurs, Leicester, lucky to get a draw at home,very poor against Stoke, Everton no better than Leicester, Arsenal are on their holidays now, well doable at home. We had chances to Bury both Bmouth and C Pal well before either team scored, IMO I think we will have 38pts before we play West Brom.


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