web analytics

Newcastle May Need 43 Points To Survive This Season

Newcastle have 19 points from their first 15 Premier league games, and are in 9th position, just 6 points off 5th place and Europe, and 5 points from 3rd bottom place and relegation.

Chris Hughton – not sure how many points we’ll need

The sides are very much bunched together,  and there are just 6 points between Sunderland in 7th place on 20 points,  and 18th placed Wigan on 14 points.

That’s 12 teams within 6 points of each other at the moment.

This is what Chris said this morning in the Newcastle Journal:

“The league is so competitive and it is very tight. At some stage it will settle down. The strongest sides will start to pull away from the rest at the top, but I don’t think anyone is going to necessarily fall away at the bottom.”

“If you look at the two teams who have had a bad start to the season, West Ham and Wolverhampton, they both won last weekend and have closed the gap.”

“They are two teams who, if you look at the players they have got, are quite capable of going on a very good run and climbing up the league. I think that is true of a lot of clubs.”

The highest points score ever by any club  in the PL who still ended up relegated, was West Ham with 42 points under Glenn Roeder, way  back in 2003.

That was the season when Newcastle finished up in 3rd place on 68 points, behind Arsenal and Champions Man United – and Sunderland were rock bottom on 19 points and were relegated  – those were the days alright.

Chelsea and Liverpool were in 4th and 5th place in 2003.

And Chris Hughton believes it could take something similar to stay up as back in 2003, so it would be  43 points  if Newcastle are going to survive, and that’s not particularly great news.

Chris continued:

“You never know, it might take something similar this year. Normally you would look at the average number of points needed and work around that, but it’s dangerous to assume anything. You normally have a rough idea but not at the moment.”

“Everyone is taking points off everyone else this season. Even the top three or four are regularly dropping points and not just when they play against each other.”

“It’s an exciting league this year because it is unpredictable, but it also means we are not going to make the mistake of saying this number of points will be enough to stay up.”

After 16 games of the 2002-2003 season Bolton Wanderers were 3rd bottom with 14 points, so it’s very similar to the league this season, after about the same number of games.

Bolton finally finished 4th bottom on 44 points and Sam Allardyce’s team survived relegation.

We had assumed before the start of the season that Blackpool would have big trouble surviving, but it seems that nobody told Ian Holloway or his players that.

If we assume we need 43 points this season to survive, then in the last 23 games we will need 24 points, so that’s around one point a game, but of course a win at West Brom on Sunday afternoon and all 3 points, will help us a lot.

Howay The Lads!!

6 comments so far

  • Rotonda heights

    Dec 1, 2010 at 11:06 AM

    Comment #1

    Wish people would stop talking about surival. Who in the bottom 10 has the likes of Carroll, Barton, Tiote, Enrique, Colo, Krul etc.

  • Indian Magpie

    Dec 1, 2010 at 11:47 AM

    Comment #2

    36 points would be enough i feel

  • Captain Beefheart

    Dec 1, 2010 at 11:50 AM

    Comment #3

    As I said on the eve of the season we need 45 points in the bag as quickly as possible ’cause our final run in is very tricky. Folks on here reckoned 40 would be fine, even less – forget it this year as we are in a lottery with any team outside the top 5 or 6 being potential relegation fodder if points aren’t hauled in (and we aren’t doing too well at present on that front).

    If we can hit 45 during March then that’s job done for Hoots and we can establish a mid-table base camp ready to push for Europe next season.

    As RH says we are too good to be relegated, but I heard that 2 years ago as well….

  • Captain Beefheart

    Dec 1, 2010 at 11:52 AM

    Comment #4

    Indian Mag, don’t bet your new Puma shirt on that!!

  • Indian Magpie

    Dec 1, 2010 at 12:02 PM

    Comment #5

    OKAY would not. But considering wasted ham Utd, wolves and wigan. i feel 36 would be sufficent.

  • albert27

    Dec 1, 2010 at 2:06 PM

    Comment #6

    My worry is a scenario where our away form, good so far, starts to plateau and we lose points more often which is to be expected given we’ve never had a good away record in the PL even during the 95-96 season….so we will then have to rely on our home form which is poor apart from a couple of good results. It sounds obvious…


You must log in to post a comment.