Dr. Daniel Plumley is a Senior Lecturer at Sheffield Hallam University.
His interests are in the finance and governance of professional team sports, and his Ph.D. thesis focuses on measuring financial and sporting performance in English professional football.
There were some reports yesterday that Mike Ashley has dropped his price for the Newcastle club to £300M.
So Plumley seems well qualified to talk about the valuation of Newcastle United and whether £300M is a reasonable figure owner Mike Ashley can expect for the club.
Ms. Amanda Staveley – will she make another move to buy Newcastle?
Dr. Plumley has been interviewed in the Shields Gazette today – and this is some of what he has said about Ashley’s price of £300M:
“There is some subjectivity to it, but if you look at some of the figures it seems about right.”
“The brand value stuff, which is done externally for football clubs, has Newcastle at around £200M.”
“That’s looking at things like the revenue mix and revenue growth, squad value, the heritage, UEFA coefficient ranking, and average attendances, among others.”
“One thing that doesn’t take into account is the value of the stadium, which Newcastle United own.”
“You can also factor in a little bit more intangible stuff around the fan power and the way in which Newcastle is viewed as a professional football club – and that takes their value to about £300M.
“As long as they’re in the Premier League, there’s nothing to really suggest that it would change.”
“His previous asking prices of around £400M was a bit high, but we think £300M is about right.”
Plumley goes on to estimate how much the club would be worth if we drop down to the Championship this season for the third time under Mike Ashley.
He arrives at a figure of £200M which seems a little high to us, and he bases that on Newcastle’s decreased revenues down in the Championship.
So given the current situation, all we need now is for Ms. Amanda Staveley to quietly approach Mike Ashley and offer £300M for the club with no strings attached.
The next thing we could hear, about the end of next month or even earlier, is that she’s bought the club via her PCP Capital Partners group and will give Rafa £100M transfer funds to spend in January.
And Rafa will be in charge of all transfers, and he can spend the transfer money as he so wishes.
That should do it – and Amanda can also announce that Rafa has agreed to stay on for another five years at Newcastle with the major aim now being to become a top-six club in the Premier League as soon as possible.
That should cheer our fans up.
I feel better just writing about the possibility.
🙂
Comments welcome.
19 comments so far
jesperfuglsang - capt'n awesome of the lemon crew
Sep 19, 2018 at 9:50 AM
Comment #1Jail for Ashley
Sep 19, 2018 at 6:40 AM
Comment #145
Gõøan daginn yespar,
There must be!
I am sorry Jail…but I don’t speak monkey!
…nor do I do xenophobic behaviour or negative intended stereotypes…I know you do but I am just saying!
jesperfuglsang - capt'n awesome of the lemon crew
Sep 19, 2018 at 9:54 AM
Comment #2Jib
Sep 19, 2018 at 8:06 AM
Comment #152
Jesper
Godmorgen min elskede
blushing emoji
hvorfor skriver idiot Jail jer vikingestil?
Jib…because stupid is what stupid does…simple as that!
If anyone can argue and defend his behaviour please do so…anyone?
hibbit
Sep 19, 2018 at 9:57 AM
Comment #3Jail
It’s Ashley up to his normal smoke and mirrors routine takeover/don’t spend/couldn’t get them over the line and Martin O’Neill appointment thrown in for good measure would be the last straw for many
damma99
Sep 19, 2018 at 10:14 AM
Comment #4Somebody will offer 300 mil then Fatman will throw a massive spanner into the works.
geordiesteve520
Sep 19, 2018 at 10:22 AM
Comment #5Lee Charnley’s a massive spanner, does that count?
sickandtired
Sep 19, 2018 at 10:27 AM
Comment #6“One thing that doesn’t take into account is the value of the stadium, which Newcastle United own.” Er, no we don’t. Mike Ashley owns it (St James’ Holdings/ MASH). The mortgage wasn’t paid off and done away with – he paid it off and kept the amount + interest as part of his ‘loans’.
All of this is a load of nonsense. Mark Douglas started it off by some of his own unqualified comments in a ‘Q&A’ in The Chron about 2 weeks ago. The Gazette repeated it yesterday, then The Chron repeated that, and now everyone is doing it.
The only thing Douglas could state as a fact was that PCP was an interested party. Gee, you don’t say.
Geordie-john
Sep 19, 2018 at 10:44 AM
Comment #7Geordie-john
Sep 18, 2018 at 10:44 AM
Comment #10
A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U
And now for the chorus !
A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T !
T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T !
BeeGuy
Sep 19, 2018 at 11:17 AM
Comment #8MA would get more for NUFC, as would every other team, if they could compete with the top six. That only happens with changing the structure of the league by adding roster limits, salary caps and a UK draft. Then the talent is spread and everyone has a chance based on how good the management and coaching are.
DutchontheToon
Sep 19, 2018 at 12:11 PM
Comment #9Well since its a good deal, Amanda should make contact by Friday this week. If not then this is all pie in the Sky talk.
toonluvva
Sep 19, 2018 at 12:22 PM
Comment #10I’m interested in the HMRC position with he club.
If we are sold and HMRC comes back, who will end up in court- the new owners or Mr Ashley?
If it is the new owners that could have a severe impact on the price and whether we can attract a buyer.
toonluvva
Sep 19, 2018 at 12:25 PM
Comment #11@ Geordie-John.
Can you please express your feelings about Mr Ashley a little more clearly.
Thank you.
Toon&oot
Sep 19, 2018 at 12:51 PM
Comment #12Ashley will sell but no doubt he will have something to add. He is not prepared to invest in the club at any price and anyone bar a total numpty should see that is required as we have stood still over the past few years. Staveley is very shrewd and given our current position I would doubt if she would buy NUFC without a relegation clause for 300m. You must remember Man City was bought as a cheaper option to Liverpool but it didn’t stop them spending BIG once the club was purchased. I think fans need a spoonful of reality rather than fantasy.
toon22
Sep 19, 2018 at 2:18 PM
Comment #13To find a buyer you need a seller first
Another MA lie
Its never MAs fault
Sav
Sep 19, 2018 at 3:08 PM
Comment #14Ashley spokesperson says ‘no clauses’. But what are his clauses? Will he relinquish the club shop? Will he relinquish the club badge? Will he give up the SD advertising immediately? Will the new buyers get what he bought including the Strawberry car park area? As it is, with a bunch of loanees, the squad is very light on assets. He can’t be trusted and that includes any transfers in January he is forced to fork out for to stave off relegation. Fans must unite to take a stand.
mactoon
Sep 19, 2018 at 3:56 PM
Comment #15@toonluvva Comment #10
As Newcastle United is a limited company and a legal entity in it’s own right I would imagine the tax liability will be with the company not the owner so it would stay with the club if sold. Charnley has set aside an amount to cover the liability HMRC have asked for.
mactoon
Sep 19, 2018 at 4:00 PM
Comment #16@Sav Comment #14
I’m not sure any of Ashley’s spokespersons said anything about ‘no clauses’?
It was Staveley who stipulated clauses in her bids and they related to repaying part of the price paid for the club in the event of relegation as I recall?
Geordie-john
Sep 19, 2018 at 4:26 PM
Comment #17toonluvva comment #11
Sorry I will try to make it a little bit clearer, HEY GREEDY COCK ney. Yes you with fat heed !
PLEASE TAKE NOTICE OF WHAT I’M ABOUT TO SAY.
A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U
And now for the chorus !
A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T !
T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T ! A S H L E Y O U T !
SORRY I HAVEN’T GOTTEN ROUND TO THE TUNE TO GO WITH IT, BUT I’M SURE ONE OR TWO PEOPLE MIGHT ALREADY KNOW IT
isleofmanman
Sep 19, 2018 at 8:10 PM
Comment #18The only way a deal will be transacted is Buyer acquiring all Groupco interests. This will include the benefit of the Ground Lease granted by Newcastle CC and will also be conditional on Ashley’s Director loans to Groupco entities being repaid
A football club is worth what a Buyer is prepared to pay for it
I haven’t (and neither has the good Doctor) seen any real comparable evidence – so arriving at a market value is impossible
As ever with football it will boil down to either massive ego (Ashley) or massive community value added / pro active / futuristic wealth (lMan City) or fast buck merchants (mostly Far Eastern Middle East and Asian punters)
Happily Ashley has brought so much justifiable criticism on himself (watch out for more broken retail empire promises) it’s easy to figure that no longer being despised by a chunk of NE England people is a good trade for focussing on his financial markets, popular press and Parliament ridicule
Sav
Sep 21, 2018 at 9:04 AM
Comment #19No-one is going to buy before the January transfer window when MA will be forced to invest to try to preserve NUFC Prem status. He is effectively asset-stripping his own club by milking the revenue, availing of unpaid for advertising, selling off property, running down the stadium and the academy/training facilities and packing the squad with players on loan while selling bankable players.
People like Ashley have no respect for any mug who believes what they say. If words can be used to gain advantage, it’s the cheapest and easiest profit they can earn.