My Concerns From Last Season Return To Haunt Me

Last season was arguably the best season since NUFC won the league way back in 1927 - qualifying for the Champions League and winning the Carabou Cup was without a doubt the best season I have experienced in my 60+ years of supporting the club.

But, I still had concerns...

I put this concern into my comments on Ed's old blog at the end of last season, and I may well have referred to that concern since in my earlier posts on the new the blog.

What was that concern?

This - despite finishing 5th last season we lost 12 games (almost 1 in 3), drawing just 6 and winning 20.

Only two teams in the top 13 lost more games - Brentford and Fulham both losing 14.

And, Spurs - with 5 - were the only team to draw fewer games than our 6.

My opinion from those stats was that under Eddie's rigid 4-3-3 system we either won or lost games, only rarely did we get a draw, We couldn't grind out those extra points.

Compare that to Arsenal who won the same number of games, 20, but drew 14 and lost only 4.

Those eight extra draws saw Arsenal comfortably finish in second place while we had to rely on Villa losing on the last day of the season to clinch a CL place - after we suffered yet another defeat by losing at home to Everton.

Tactics sussed and too easy to beat

In truth, despite the cup win and CL place, last season was yet again a mixed bag of inconsistent performances and results - the effective high press and dominating swagger of the 23/24 performances were rarely seen.

IMO we had been sussed.

Teams stopped trying to play out from the back against our high press and, instead, hit long quick balls that exposed the lack of pace in our midfield and across the back four.

And, when we retained defensive possession, we were given a dose of our own medicine.

The oppo pressed hard on us and exposed our weakness in close control and passing ability, weaknesses that consistently gifted possession straight back to the oppo.

This long ball and hard closing down tactic is ideally suited, and often the standard way of playing, for teams in the lower half of the table. And seven of those lower teams beat us.

Their managers quickly realised that trying to play out from the goalkeeper to defender and on to midfield and attack, ala Liverpool, Man City and Arsenal, was far too risky with players who were technically way behind those at the top clubs.

So, our high press 4-3-3 style took a double whammy - one from teams who deliberately changed to the long ball tactics against us, and those who packed in full stop trying to play tappy lappy out from the back.

Result? 12 defeats including at home against Brighton, West Ham, Fulham, Bournemouth and Everton, and heavy defeats away to Fulham and Brentford.

We had to cut the defeats and get more draws in 25/26

Before a ball was kicked this season I didn't expect us to beat last season's 20 wins.

Only City with 21 and title winners Liverpool with 25 had more wins last season.

What we needed to do was turn defeats into draws and become harder to beat.

Three things were needed to do that, strengthening the squad, recognising that the 4-3-3 high press was no longer as effective, and being far more flexible in formations.

The simple fact is... we have failed on all three counts.

If you keep doing the same things, don't expect different results

Strengthened the squad? It is now clear that by selling Isak we weakened it.

Isak's quality meant he could, and regularly did, pull a goal out of nothing even against the run of play. That helped us to get 20 wins last season, but it didn't stop 12 defeats.

We started the season with Woltemade and, far from changing formation and away from a high press, we continued 'same as' last season playing 4-3-3.

But despite his early goals, it was clear for all to see that Big Nick, far from high pressing. was literally low balling nearer the half way line.

Did Eddie change formation? No. He persisted with 4-3-3 until Woltemade's goals ran out and then moved him into midfield and put Gordon into the 4-3-3 ST role.

And, all the time, from the start of the season, the inconsistency and vulnerability to defeats from so called lesser teams continued. Compounded by dreadful away form and a new weakness in losing games time and again from winning positions.

The fixture list and injuries is only partly to blame

It's a reason, but I don't accept it as an excuse for being 14th with six games to go.

Eddie, it pains me to say it, has apparently learnt nothing from last season.

We still play the same formation, rarely change formation during games other than subbing like for like players, and when we do sub it's often too late and pointless.

There is another true saying; it's better to have tried and failed than never to have tried at all. How often has Eddie tried to change away from 4-3-3? Hardly ever.

In summary...

My concern from last season is that we lost far too many games but got away with it by winning 20.

My worry for this season was if we didn't repeat or get close to that winning total this season - and our defeat level continued - we wouldn't qualify again for the CL.

Unfortunately we have now lost 14 games, two more already than last season, and with just 12 wins we will struggle to get anywhere near last season's 20.

One stat that hasn't changed much is our inability to turn defeats into draws.

With just 6 so far this season only Fulham with 5 have drawn less.

Fact: 4-3-3 high press tactics with this squad is no longer working.

Conclusion: Unless dramatic changes are made - to the squad, formation, or manager - don't expect dramatically different results next season.

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