Why Are Newcastle United Conceding So Many Shots Under Matthias Jaissle?
Newcastle got the result they desperately needed against Hull City on Saturday, winning 2–1 at St James' Park after racing into a two-goal lead inside seven minutes.
It put us on 8pts and joint 5th on points earned and going into the international break with just one defeat in our opening five games - a very creditable return from our young manager and his young in transition squad.
But one statistic should concern Matthias Jaissle.
Hull managed 21 shots against Newcastle.
That wasn't an isolated occurrence. Newcastle had already faced 76 shots in their opening four Premier League matches.
Add Hull's 21 and Newcastle have now faced 97 shots in just five league games — an average of just shy of 20 per match.
If we concede that many shots against established in form PL teams more heavy defeats similar to that at Leeds could follow.
So why are Newcastle allowing opponents so many attempts?
Is Jaissle's Counter Press Leaving Newcastle Exposed?
When possession is lost, the players are encouraged to counter-press immediately rather than retreat into their defensive shape.
When it works, Newcastle can win possession in dangerous areas and attack before opponents have reorganised.
The problem comes when that first press is beaten.
Opponents can suddenly find large areas of space between Newcastle's midfield and defence, leaving the back line exposed.
We saw that repeatedly in the 4–1 defeat at Leeds and there were warning signs again against Hull.
What Happened Against Hull?
Newcastle couldn't have started much better.
Joe Willock scored after just three minutes before Lewis Hall made it 2–0 four minutes later.
At that stage Newcastle appeared to be cruising.
But Hull gradually worked their way back into the match.
Yoane Wissa missed a penalty before half-time to put the result to bed and Hull continued creating opportunities after the break before Mohamed-Ali Cho reduced the deficit in the 67th minute.
Newcastle eventually held on, but a match which looked almost over after seven minutes became far more uncomfortable than it needed to be.
Is Newcastle's Midfield the Problem?
This is probably an area Jaissle will be studying closely.
A high press doesn't work simply because the forwards chase defenders.
The attack, midfield and defence have to move together.
If Newcastle's forwards press and the midfield doesn't follow quickly enough, opponents can play through the first line and attack the space behind it.
Equally, if the midfield pushes forward but Newcastle's defensive line doesn't follow, another gap appears.
The distances between Newcastle's players therefore become crucial.
Are Injuries Making the Problem Worse?
They certainly aren't helping.
Newcastle went into the Hull game with a lengthy injury list including Anthony Elanga, Joelinton, Amar Dedić, Nico González, Dan Burn, William Osula and Ewen Jaouen, while Tino Livramento was also absent.
That left Jaissle with an extremely inexperienced bench full of youngsters yet to make their debut.
Joelinton's absence may be particularly important. His physical strength, pressing and ability to win challenges gives Newcastle something different in midfield.
But injuries alone cannot explain why Newcastle have been allowing opponents so many attempts.
Does Jaissle Need to Change His Tactics?
Not necessarily his philosophy — but perhaps the way it is being implemented.
Jaissle's counter tactics and vertical football could ultimately prove very effective at Newcastle.
But there will be occasions when Newcastle need to recognise that that tactic isn't working.
Dropping the defensive line slightly or having one midfielder sit deeper could reduce the space opponents currently seem able to exploit.
The objective shouldn't be to abandon Jaissle's basic format.
It should be to make it more difficult for opponents to see and exploit the space that is giving them so many shot opportunities.
Should Newcastle Fans Be Concerned?
Five Premier League games is still a small sample and Jaissle is implementing his ideas with a significantly changed and much younger squad.
But 97 opposition shots in five matches is difficult to ignore.
Newcastle won't be able to rely on opponents failing to convert those opportunities every week and the truth is for many fans, me included, the hammering at Leeds wasn't unexpected.
What helps is that Jaissle now has time both to work on the solution in training and to get most of the injured, and experienced, players back fit during the three week break.
Newcastle don't play another Premier League game until the trip to Coventry on the 12th October. That time needs to be put to good use.
Newcastle have shown they can score goals under Jaissle.
The challenge now is to dramatically reduce the shots we concede - do that and it will be a massive step forward in maintaining our good start to the season.
An average of 20 shots conceded per game cannot continue.
Last Post: Newcastle 2 Hull 1
Does anybody else think Sean Steur could be great playing further up the pitch, in midfield just behind the striker? He can drop his shoulder to get past a player, has his head on a swivel, and can play passes between the lines. I think he could be a revelation in a more advanced role. A bit like a young De Bruyne. 😉
I don't think we went 3 at the back against Hull late on.
I've not re watched it. I only watched it while at the game.
So, this might be a bit off. I was pulling my hair out and spitting feathers for most of the last 25 minutes.
I thought Thiaw went RB and Schar went to CB.
Nico G/Miley
Are they too similar to play together ?
Should we have spent 50M on a player to do what Miley can do ?
Having 2 in the squad that can do it is not a bad thing.
Nico in Nov/Dec last year was playing as the defensive midfield player in a 4/3/3 or even a 4/1/4/1.
Pep left and their new manager wants to play with a midfield 2 in a 4/2/3/1.
Happy to let Nico go as clearly he thought he wasn't the answer in that system.
We buy him and that's the system we use. 4/2/3/1.
Will we change at some stage. Also, if Nico does not have the mobility to play as one of the…
Just stopping by for 1 quick comment, then i'll be off till matchday 10.
But, for those worried about 4-2-3-1 before Hull, stating we would get overrun in midfield etc and how we don't have the players for it, it's not working etc.....
Well, we were dominant and all over Hull in the first half, should have been out of sight.
What changed second half that made them suddenly dominate us?
Steur went off, meaning we changed out shape and went 3 at the back.
We switched away from 4-2-3-1 and all of a sudden, looked completely exposed, lost all control and most of Hulls shots came after that change.
Just thought that was interesting to mention, it's almost like…
@JfA with the injuries we have with our Right Backs it has to be Miley at fullback and Nico & Steur in the middle for the short term. Steur is a talent and always looks to play the ball forward although sometimes the odd pass goes astray.