Reality Check: Finances, NUFC, Players, Eddie Howe
- 5 hours ago
- 4 min read
After years under Ashley where expectations were avoiding relegation - failed twice - and hoping beyond hope for a decent Cup run; the sky appeared to be the limit after PIF rode into Toon. Fans were ecstatic, expectations abounded., cups & titles here we come.
Let's take a harsh look at the reality.
Finances
The 'richest club in the world' tag is a myth.
We all know - and now so do PIF - that the Big 6 and the Premier League deliberately set out to block Newcastle from spending at will with PSR rules, and especuially banning inter-company sponsorship, massively restricting our progress.
Not for Newcastle the previous 'gatecrashing, spend, spend, spend' way to the top enjoyed by Man City and Chelsea after their takeover by multi, multi, billionaires.
Reality: 'Rich' is determined by income generated - and Newcastle are 100's of millions every year behind the elite clubs in the PL and in Europe.
The reality is that gap, even if it can be closed, is years away if at all from parity and our ability to compete financially in the transfer market is massively impacted.
NUFC
The last time we won the League was 1927, the FA Cup 1955, the Fairs Cup 1969.
Whilst winning the Carabou Cup was a joyous achievement for us fans, on the scale of cups and titles won in recent years by the likes of Man City, Chelsea, LIverpool, Manchester Unitedl and Arsenal it was hardly a ripple in the pond.
Today's players, in every country, grew up during the explosion in popularity and media coverage of the Premier League watching the above five teams win cups and titles galore. Guess who they dreamed of playing for?
Keven Keegan and SBR no doubt did much to put Newcastle on the map but, again, by comparison to the those five clubs it was a mere ripple.
Reality: NUFC is a 'big club' only in terms of the fantastic and fanatical support that has endured during decades of trophy drought.
We aren't big in recent domestic and European success, and we aren't big in financial terms. In reality we have just gone from 'little fry' to 'upper middling fry'.
To emphasise that; in the last three seasons when we have finished 4th, 7th and 5th we were respectively 18pts, 31pts, and 18pts behind the title winners.
Challengers for Europe only, nowhere near close to the title.
Players
Prior to last summer our success is the transfer market has been sensational.
Pope, Trippier and Burn for less than £40M total.
Bruno, Botman, Isak, Gordon, Barnes,Tino, Hall, Tonali...
All of those signings have proven exceptional value for money and the eight above are all still worth more than what we paid, with all eleven having played a big part in our progress.
However...
That progress brings big expectations - that were emphatically crushed before a ball was kicked this season.
Flushed with success after the cup win and CL qualification - and with the transfer coffers bulging - the decision was made to go after players who it should have been clearly obvious would also be targets of the Big 5.
And guess what... one after another they turned us down, signed for the elite, strengthened their squads, and put us further behind.
To cap it all, we had Isak go on strike to force a move to an elite club.
My opinion on that whole episode, stated at the time, was that being turned down by our targets for the elite clubs would send a sobering message to our top players.
Careers are short for the big trophy and title winning medals that the top players crave.
My bet is that players like Tonali, Gordon and Tino especially, and even possibly Bruno, realised that their chance of realising their ambitions with Newcastle were slim to nil.
And, what hammered that home, was that the summer signings - Thiaw apart - were mere shadows of the players we missed out on. We knew it, and so did our top players.
Reality: Our top players know we can't compete on an equal footing with the elite clubs.
Our top players now, and for a few years to come, will want to leave for the elite.
And the top players we want, if they have a choice, will go to the elite clubs.
Plus, we can't compete in any event on fees and wages,
Eddie Howe
Fans - including me - have expressed opinions on his weaknesses; too inflexible in 4-3-3, strange team selections, in game management.
But, were we always one bad transfer window away from going backwards?
Everyone knew with CL this season, on top of expectations of qualifying again and having another real crack at both Cups, that the squad needed strengthening.
Especially after losing a truly world class ST, Isak.
The truth is the squad hasn't been strengthened - we've just added players no better or much worse than those that left or were already here.
Let's forget about whose fault that was - in part it was down to our top targets turning us down.
Our success in the LC and CL meant that our fixture list piled up almost as fast as the injuries to that under strength squad. League form suffered - no s**t Sherlock.
Reality: Eddie Howe has done a truly magnificent job in taking us from relegation favourites to two CL qualifications and a Cup in the last three seasons.
But, that success has come with a double edged sword - even higher expectations.
We are trying to break into the elite level with all of the restrictions mentioned in Finances, NUFC and Players.
And here is the reality - those restrictions will apply to ANY manager.
What Eddie has proven is that over the previous three seasons he has managed to finish 4th, 7th and 5th. That is akin to what SBR achieved - and he didn't win a Cup.
This season those restrictions and a poor transfer window have caught up with Eddie.
Can another manager under those same restrictions get better results and finish higher than Eddie has previously done?
History tells us that most clubs before us like Man U, Spurs and Chelsea, who fell off the pace and sacked their managers, had a period where they got worse.
We need to be careful what we wish for.
Just look at what happened after SBR was sacked for proof of that.
Last Post: On Target For 15th
magscar posted "My wish now is if Eddie decides to leave or is dismissed then we make the right appointment- is that too much to expect ?"
I understanf the point about the wrong decisions being made after KK and SBR left - and getting it right this time, but times have changed.
Back then we broke the world transfer fee when buying Shearer and were attracting top players like Ferdinand, Ginola, Albert, Robert and Woodgate.
We were also close to winning the title and seen as genuine challengers.
Not now.
Getting the 'right' appointment is what all teams try to do but the vast majority don't work out, that is why so many clubs churn managers - look at…
We must get better at moving on bad or ill suited players quickly.
Elanga hasn’t worked, but given the prices paid for players like Brenna Johnson, I’m sure West Ham would give us a decent chunk of money to reunite him with Nuno.
We have to move them on and get the players Howe wants.
There's a difference between Eddie Howe and Ferguson. Howe takes tge training Ferguson didn't. Plus it's maybe a bit of a myth that he changed coaches to keep it fresh as his first team coaches left to take up other positions.
If Howe is staying, he needs a couple of different wise men beside him, because f#ck knows what Tindall brings to the bloody table. defensive coach? My arse.
Great take, as usual, pal.
My reluctance to pull the plug on Howe - DESPITE his obvious, glaring, and repeated failings re selection, rotation, favouritism, tactics and in-game management - has been largely driven by the PTSD of being one of the first to join the "Bobby-out" bandwagon 20 years ago.
As you say, be careful what you wish for!!
You, quite rightly, cite the "TV generation", for whom football history began in 1992.
Just how much that SBR decision cost us is incalculable.
Bear in mind we WERE the top spenders. We HAD the commercial revenue, and we PAID the top wages.
It was the catalogue of sub-par managers that followed KK - and to a lesser degree SBR…