On Target For The Worst Position Since Promotion

Since being promoted back to the Premier League after the title winning season of 2016/17 Newcastle's lowest finish in the PL is 13th. This season it could be 15th.

Relegation form in the last 11 games

Eight defeats in the last eleven games is relegation form.

The current run of form isn't a blip - it is an awful run that we have been on the brink of having since early in the season when it was clear that whatever it was that was previously working.... no longer was.

If you keep doing the same thing, don't expect different results.

But doing exactly that is the biggest criticism IMO that can be levelled at Eddie Howe.

His persistence in sticking with 4-3-3 when it was clear that it was no longer producing the same level of performances as previously, has been our and his undoing.

The high press 4-3-3 worked best when teams - even those at the bottom - tried to copy the Man City and Arsenal style of playing out from the back.

Fads like this come and go in football, just like the long throw now adopted by all teams.

However, managers of teams without defenders with the ability of the elite realised that playing out from the back was a recipe for disaster.

Passes went astray, defenders closed down, daft goals given away.

So, teams started to move away from the 'fad' and started hitting long balls to counter a high press. That meant the teams who were set up to press high had to change tactics.

And that's where Eddie has struggled to adapt.

What has made the situation even worse is that our counter attacking threat - based on and benefitting from Isak's pace and blistering shots - has been blunted by his replacement Woltemade having no pace and a tendency to drop deep.

Even during his run of goals early in the season the signs were still there that the team wasn't functioning well as a unit.

Once Big Nick's goals dried up his inability to play at the head of a 4-3-3 became obvious. Shuttled into midfield he now warms the bench along with Wissa.

Daniel Farke shows the way

Following a string of defeats at the start of the season, and under immense early pressure for his job, Daniel Farke ditched 4-3-3 and pivoted to 3-5-2.

He paired summer signing Dominic Calvert-Lewin with Noah Okafor up front. 

This move transformed Calvert-Lewin's form; he went from an isolated figure to scoring in five consecutive games, benefiting from Okafor's movement and the closer support from midfield.

Result? Leeds are now clear of relegation and only 3pts behind Newcastle.

If both sides continue their current form to the end of the season Leeds will finish above us and we could drop to 15th.

Eddie looks lost and needs a break and total re-think

We all know there are reasons for our poor league form; the summer signings, injuries to key players and a packed fixture list. But that isn't the whole story.

Tactics, team selection and in game management have also played a big part.

As the poor run of results has continued, in Eddie's before and after match press conferences he has increasingly looked like a man who is bewildered and struggling for answers to what is going wrong and how to fix it.

Tellingly, after yesterday's defeat, he took a long 7 seconds to answer a question asking if the players still had 'fire in their bellies'. He eventually said he thought they did, but he can't really speak for other people.

Not a great answer, at all.

It reminds me of when Sir John Hall asked then manager Ossie Ardiles if he thought he could save Newcastle from relegation to the Third Division.

"It's in the lap of the God's" replied Ossie. That 'no confidence' vote led to Ossie being sacked days later and Kevin Keegan arriving to keep us up and lead us to promotion the following year.

However, I don't think PIF will sack Eddie no matter how the last five games pan out.

I think they will believe he deserves a chance to overhaul the squad, sign the players that Ross Wilson has identified, and go into next season refreshed and with new tactics.

If Eddie does leave, I think he will make that decision.

One thing is for certain...

Whether Eddie stays or goes - this is going to be a summer of massive change at NUFC.

Newcastle: Eddie Howe's biggest Newcastle challenge yet? Can he survive? - BBC Sport

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