Poor in the Prem, Good in the Cups. Why?

In my opinion it's quite simple...

In both the EPL Cup and CL almost without exception teams are going for a win - not to avoid defeat.

With no replays in EPL Cup, and drawn games going straight to penalties, there is no real incentive for a team to sit back, flood the defence and hope to avoid a defeat - as often happens in the Prem and especially when the underdogs play a top team.

In the CL, lose the first game, as we did and you are straight on the back foot for qualifying for the next round so most teams go all out for a win in the next game.

Win, or even draw, the first game and the objective is the same as losing the first one - get another win on the board and you are well on your way to qualifying.

That means our EFL Cup and CL games so far this season have been very open with the oppo pressing forward, not employing a low block ,and instead setting out to attack.

That is an opposition tactic that plays into our strengths.

Same tactics and formation used against open & low block opposition

Therein, IMO, lies the problem.

"If you keep doing the same thing, you'll keep getting the same results" is a saying that could have been written for our formation and tactics in the Prem - especially away from home.

In the Prem a point for teams outside of the 'Big Six', is gold dust and especially if those teams are at our near the bottom of the table.

So, employing a low block, setting out not lose and hoping to snatch a goal on the break is a common tactic - exactly the tactic West Ham used so effectively on Sunday.

And yet again - just as we did last season - we struggle to get our rigid 433 system to break down the low block and create chances for goals.

In the cups against oppo going for a win from the off, and playing a high line, we are able to control the midfield battles and use our pace on the wings to exploit the space that a high line leaves.

Compare that to Sunday where against a low block our wingers rarely got the space to get beyond their full backs, get a cross in, or have a crack at goal.

The exception was Murphy's goal and after that West Ham's low block was rigidly enforced.

Some fans have criticised our lack of effort at West Ham.

I disagree - it wasn't a lack of effort - it was a lack of a Plan B to play our way around or through two packed defensive lines.

We dominated possession but got nowhere and the truth is West Ham always looked more likely to create chances and score than we did. And they did just that.

Only 2 teams in the top 13 lost more games than the Toon last season

Last season we lost 12 games in the league and still qualified for the CL.

There is no way IMO we can lose that number of games this season and qualify again.

Our 433 tactics last season produced 20 wins, only 6 draws, and 12 defeats.

With only 3 out of 10 wins this season we now need 17 wins in 28 games to match last season's win rate.

IMO those stats for last season show that the rigid 433 tactics that Eddie Howe continues to employ result in too many Prem losses - this season it's already 4 in 10 games ie.,we are on target to match or exceed last season's loss rate.

In summary...

We are now considered a threat and a top side by all teams in the Prem.

That means many teams - and especially those outside of the big 6 - will use low blocks against us and now know that we not only struggle to perform, but also that they can use that tactic to win.

The solution?

A change of formation and tactics - especially away from home - where it is now eight games without a win. If that duck isn't broken fast we are heading for a mid table finish.

That is the reality - and not at all where we expected to be after most fans agreed that the squad is stronger after the summer signings.

At this stage last season we were 11th and finished 5th - six places better and the highest movement in places of any team in the Prem after 10 games.

This season we are 13th and to finish 4th and qualify for the CL again we'll need to finish nine places higher - a rare event in the Prem and a huge challenge.

Too early to worry?

No, IMO Eddie Howe needs to worry now how to change things, and fast, or our CL qualifying ambitions will quickly become a pipe dream.

Do you agree with my opinion, do you have other reasons why we can't repeat our cup form in the league, or do you think it;s too early to worry about CL qualification?

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